mobiusmoe

incredible 📝 35f9257c…

Bitcoin's exchange rate expressed in gold follows a power law trend almost as closely as when expressed in usd (95% vs 96% r-squared) In past bull/bear cycles bitcoin's behaviour around the power trend line is nearly identical for both measures (green circles). This relationship has noticeably decoupled in the current cycle: - the usd exchange rate has risen from long-term support trend line to the power trend line (red circles) - the gold exchange rate has remained anchored to the long-term support trend line (red circles) If gold is a more accurate measure of purchasing power, it can be argued bitcoin has not yet entered a bull-run in purchasing power terms In gold terms, the power law trend line indicates, if a purchasing power bull-run occurs, bitcoin's price may: - 2x from here to the power trend line (reversion to trend / no bull-run) - 5x from here to to 1sd-up line (conservative base case bull-run) - 10x from here to to 2sd-up line (up-side bull-run) In usd terms, that's an exchange rate of US$500,000 to US$1,000,000 per bitcoin in a bull-run this cycle This seems unlikely to say the least ... something is broken ... can someone tell me what it is? npub13l3lyslfzyscrqg8saw4r09y70702s6r025hz52sajqrvdvf88zskh8xc2 npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs npub1f4uyypghstsd8l4sxng4ptwzk6awfm3mf9ux0yallfrgkm6mj6es50r407 npub1gkkahxwca30rf2td22u9p3jnmlh79dylgmm2et0kykftle6tdcysj4zden npub14uhkst639zvc2trx2nlsvk4yqkjp690zk89keytnzgmq2az0qmnq58ez89 npub153xmex42x4chdf757hp3q6zxagykkek7pdgwuwd074964dkyha9s82ryu8 npub1r00t03pv2kxpes5x676xu3j2e0ag8hmmtzv8et0matxg876tnkgsp5sqe8