Quantoshi.xyz

The father of Alexander the Great commissioned a servant to remind him daily: “Phillip, you will die.” Memento mori.

If you had a bunch of Bitcoin price data, and you wanted to extrapolate in to the future for retirement or DCA estimating, and that data fit a power law, the natural thing to do would be to create a Markov model with transition probabilities derived from quantile power law fits to price data and then take several hundred weighted random walks to get a feel for where one ends up after say 10 years… This sort of thing used to take a while on a computer; I can now do it on your phone…sorta…I precomputed about ½ a gigabyte of simulation results for instant lookup, but I think I will figure out how to integrate @BTCPay Server so people can pay for the compute cycles to simulate their exact scenario. Is 50¢ for high quality digital graphs of your retirement too expensive? I think I’m gonna corner the sub-$1 financial planner market 🤣 Coming soon to https://quantoshi.xyz/ !

The whole knots v core debate is the wrong one. We really should be arguing about partitioning block space for standard vs. Non standard transactions

Decided to add some Bitcoin history and Bitcoiner quotes to the occasional loading screen on Quantoshi…so you don’t see the 1500 msec of caching behind the scenes…there is an Easter egg that will let you scroll through all quotes…102 good ones. Now go get stacking! https://quantoshi.xyz/3

With Bitcoin currently trading at the 7th percentile…what do you think results in a bigger stack in 10 years, steady monthly DCA —OR— borrowing 1 years worth of contributions at 13% on an interest only loan and buying bitcoin with the loan…assume loan gets rolled until year 10 when you sell appreciated bitcoin and pay 33% capital gains tax on the bitcoin you sold to pay off the loan… The result depends a good deal on what percentile bitcoin price trades at in 10 years. For the sake of argument, let’s say Bitcoin’s price falls on a percentile basis to the 1st percentile. The price in 10 years at 1st percentile extrapolates to $905,817. That’s the bearish 1st percentile! The loan interest takes about ⅛ of away from what you can use for DCA every month but adds a staggering 10% to your final stack, even with punitive capital gains (10-20% is more typical of those below the ~$650k annual income success level to qualify for bonus theft via AMT-alternative minimum “tax”). This is risky, no doubt. You’ve permanently impaired your monthly DCA allowance until loan repayment and you don’t have the option of skipping this part…and interest rates may rise above 13% or loan may not be allowed to roll over. In theory you could borrow about 8x annual DCA and spend 100% of your DCA allotment but that’s quite risky. https://quantoshi.xyz/3#q2:H4sIAEKqqWkC_81PQQqEMBD7S845TK…

I implemented tax consequences for borrowing costs associated with Stack-cellerator on Quantoshi https://quantoshi.xyz/3

Bitcoin has had an amazing price history. And the biggest problem with its price history is that the roughly 8x variation between peaks and valleys makes it so hard for people to see the underlying trend. I built Quantoshi to help everyone see a little further, plan a little better, and think a little more clearly about Bitcoin. We didn’t have stuff like this back when I was new to Bitcoin. Learn to extrapolate. Quantoshi can help. https://quantoshi.xyz/3

Bitcoin is unfairly cheap right now. Percentile 8.2, in fact. What is the extrapolated risk of buying Bitcoin today? Do a simulated buy on Quantoshi and look at max loss and compound annual growth rate following pessimistic or optimistic price trajectories: https://quantoshi.xyz/2

I think Saylor is really on to something with STRC…you can do a personal version of what Saylor is doing and accelerate your stack…Quantoshi can let you extrapolate the effects of Entering Saylor Mode so you can calculate your Stack-celeration factor… Scroll down on https://quantoshi.xyz/3

Want to Accelerate your stack? While I know this sounds crazy, and yes, this is risky, but have you considered extrapolating the effects of borrowing money to buy Bitcoin? Well, Quantoshi now lets you compare the effects of DCA vs. Borrow an amount equal to 1 year of DCA on an interest only loan and rolling over loan every year. The result? Saylor and @jack mallers are right…you need to think about this. Scroll down to Enter Saylor Mode and see what your extrapolated Stack-celleration factor would be! https://quantoshi.xyz/3 And if you suddenly find yourself needing to buy more sats, check out @Bitcoin Well (the direct to wallet guys), @River (I personally use River and they offer something like interest on something like dollar deposits), and @strike (see their bitcoin backed lending and line of credit)…

One of the problems with AI coding is that AI can make mistakes a human never would and it’s hard to notice.

True story: I made Quantoshi.xyz on Monday. And now it’s Wednesday and Bitcoin is up like 10% since I shipped my code. Coincidence? Or are people seeing the future more clearly? https://quantoshi.xyz/

I added quantile bands to the HODL Supercharger default graph at https://quantoshi.xyz/5

Do you have 1 Bitcoin? Thinking of retiring? What might be the effects of delaying your retirement a year? Or two? Or four or eight years? Check out the new HODL supercharger on Quantoshi…there are 80,000,000 reasons for you to check it out, if you look at the legend for the graph…you can thank me later!

Ok, it took closer to 15 minutes. 📝 915a827a…

Building a new feature for Quantoshi: the HODL Supercharger…explore the effects of delaying when you start drawing down your stack…coming soon…I think the link will in an hour or so be https://quantoshi.xyz/5

Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin? What if price crashes to the 0.001st percentile, how much would I lose? Check out the Quantoshi compound annual growth rate heatmap: https://quantoshi.xyz/2

I think @Lyn Alden would instantly grok the idea behind Quantoshi, scroll down to edit assumptions: https://quantoshi.xyz/4

Want Bitcoin retirement insight, but you run @Jameson Lopp level opsec? Quantoshi has you covered. http://u5dprelc4ti7xoczb5sbtye6qidlji2l6psmkx35anvxgjyqrk…

@Pierre Rochard @Morgen Rochard I did a thing, a retirement thing, with bitcoin: see retirement tab on my new WebApp Quantoshi: https://quantoshi.xyz/#q2:H4sIAAiKp2kC_4VQ0WrDMAz8F_VVFNl… This is a lot of math and not a lot of hype…I’m not trying to tickle any fomo feelings but rather give people a 5th percentile extrapolated view of the future and help them realize even then the returns are amazing…people need to start planning today!