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Quantoshi.xyz12d ago
Bitcoin is unfairly cheap right now. Percentile 8.2, in fact. What is the extrapolated risk of buying Bitcoin today? Do a simulated buy on Quantoshi and look at max loss and compound annual growth rate following pessimistic or optimistic price trajectories: https://quantoshi.xyz/2
💬 10 replies

Replies (10)

EDJ12d ago
How come this table shows a -4% at the Q10 exit in 2026? The starting point is Q8.2 right? Am I misreading it or is there a cost here I'm forgetting?
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Quantoshi.xyz12d ago
It is aligned to January to give you the least rosy/most risky view
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Quantoshi.xyz12d ago
So it’s kind of like you went back in time to January to sell at January’s 10th percentile. This effect will grow worse 12/31/2026 and disappear 1/1/2027…only to grow worse again by 12/31
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Quantoshi.xyz12d ago
I’m trying not to get people to fomo in to Bitcoin. I want people to see the bigger picture. You can lose big time in the short term and still do considerably better than the stock market by years 5-10.
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EDJ12d ago
Oh I see. 😃👍. Interesting tool. What are the main insights you've had for yourself? I presume a whole bunch of gut feelings you've had for over a decade being proven right or wrong?
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Quantoshi.xyz12d ago
1) I should have seen the pattern by 2016. 2) I should be borrowing money to buy bitcoin today, despite being in top tax bracket (capital gains taxes, plural, add up to about 33% if you look at high bracket alternative minimum tax 28%, federal net investment income tax 3.8%, and my state investment income bonus theft/tax). 3) taxes force you to roll over loans rather than pay them back…if you did serial loans paying back principle from gains every year, you’re better off DCA’ing. 4) delaying retirement by 1 year makes a massive difference at the end. 5) extrapolation is not prediction https://quantoshi.xyz/7.3 6) One Bitcoin is a lot of bitcoin, should extrapolation prove true. 7) Bitcoiners won’t be the first to want to live forever, but they will have the most reason, financially speaking, to live to be very old…
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EDJ12d ago
Interesting. Thanks for sharing. What's your plan? Think you'll take out a loan?
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Quantoshi.xyz12d ago
Mathematically I feel like I should. But as I already have a fair amount of debt, I guess in a way I already have…when I didn’t have to pay my medical school loan during COVID, I stacked sats with every penny. That itself will effectively pay off my loans in due time. But the idea of more debt still scares me. I grew up poor…and that kind of scare is hard to shake, despite thorough knowledge. That said, there is a number for everyone that they could afford to enable a personal Saylor strategy with low stress. I feel like I’m going to regret my decision on this someday…
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EDJ12d ago
Not worth losing much sleep over. Sounds like the choice is already made really. Stay humble, stack sats 😎👊
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Quantoshi.xyz12d ago
It’s all a question about sizing your leverage. Too much and you lose big time. Too little and your descendants will begrudge your lack of effort :)
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