Paul Sernine

Thank you to @Jake Woodhouse for this nice interview of @RedTailHawk ! Learning is central to our species & I can highly recommend having a daily (or at least weekly) learning habit. Keep up the good work, both of you! https://fountain.fm/episode/1igpVFK7g7q18VOi0ylK 📝 1768b986…

GM & PV fellow nostriches ☕️☀️ Have a great & successful day. Stay humble & stack sats 🫂🧡💜 #coffeechain #plebchain

Thanks to @walker for this nice interview of @Brandon Gentile . Taking back education & fostering (or even reinstating) multi-generational dialogue is extremely important today if we want to survive as social species. Keep up the good work, both of you, and keep spreading the word! https://fountain.fm/episode/96lDn0RAuAfKJPmXRAoi 📝 12d7a0dc…

👀 📝 d67f1581…

Thx for another insightful & educational episode. Sad to hear about your friend’s passing! Sounds like she really was one of a kind & a kindred spirit. Dr John Donne once wrote that when a person dies, her page in the book of life isn’t ripped out but rather translated into a better language. May she rest in peace & may her memory be a blessing 🙏🏼 https://fountain.fm/episode/lzdj29mMlLMeUAQkQY2c 📝 e7236b75…

Thank you to @walker for a great, inspiring & entertaining interview with @Erik Cason ! Your podcast episodes are always worth the time & I highly recommend listening to them on a regular basis to anyone interested in #Bitcoin & its ecosystem. Keep up the good work! https://fountain.fm/episode/u4FB6afx6ZwNcCrIWHjO 📝 52e1a94f…

From Robert Kiyosaki‘s FB channel today: „WARNING: $9.6 TRILLION DEBT BOMB ABOUT TO EXPLODE Most people have NO CLUE what's coming in 2026. Here's what the fake news media isn't telling you: $9.6 TRILLION of U.S. debt matures in 2026. That's 25% of ALL federal debt rolling over in ONE year. WTF does this mean? Back in 2020-2021, the government borrowed TRILLIONS at basically 0% interest. Today? Interest rates are around 4%. Now they have to REFINANCE all that debt at MUCH HIGHER rates. Translation: The government's interest payments will top $1 TRILLION per year. The biggest in HISTORY. What happens next? The Fed will do what they ALWAYS do. PRINT MORE FAKE MONEY. Lower rates. Print dollars. Bail out the government. This is EXACTLY why I keep buying GOLD, SILVER, BITCOIN, and ETHEREUM. When the Fed prints…real assets go UP. When the Fed prints…your fake dollars become WORTHLESS. The middle class will panic when inflation comes back. The rich are already positioning NOW. Rich Dad taught me: "The best time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." Right now? Most people are asleep. By the time this hits mainstream news…it will be too late. Get educated. Take action. Trade your fake dollars for REAL money before 2026.“

Here‘s a vital insight from Robert Kiyosaki, given to him by his Rich dad: „Poor people don't hate the rich. They hate the decisions they've made. And they blame the people who made different ones.“ Stay humble & stack sats. And never give up on your dreams, fellow nostriches!

Thank you to @walker for this great interview of @jimmy song ! Love the nuance & deep knowledge Jimmy brought to the topics discussed. Kudos to both of you for your dedicated work! Highly recommended episode for anyone interested in #bitcoin and its past & current developments. https://fountain.fm/episode/MPf5aJHxUZk34AHQClB4 📝 e8d37560…

Thank you to @Jake Woodhouse for another great & inspiring interview, this time with @npub1eawxwqldulz8rn80jug6n63seyn8pwelm9mmu7rdt622lfj7am9qgem0rx ! Highly recommended episode and, of course, podcast series! Kudos to both of you for your dedicated work! https://fountain.fm/episode/4A5EQivBjuHW9SyO09F3 📝 ba068220…

Some insight from Craig Tapping (on FB): „Bitcoin Cycles: Forget the 4 Year Myth. Follow the Liquidity. For years, the dominant narrative has been the “Bitcoin 4 year cycle” tied to halvings. It sounds clean. It feels predictable. It gives people comfort. But when you step back and overlay Bitcoin with Central Bank Liquidity, the pattern becomes much clearer and far more powerful. Now let’s break this down properly. --- 1. Market Tops: Liquidity Tightening, Not Halvings Look at the major cycle peaks: * 2013–2014 * 2017–2018 * 2021–2022 Each of these tops formed as: * Inflation became overheated * QE stopped * Central Banks switched back to QT * Liquidity rolled over That is the consistent pattern. Bitcoin is a liquidity sponge. When global liquidity contracts, speculative assets struggle. Every single major top aligns with tightening conditions. It is not the halving that kills the bull run. It is the withdrawal of liquidity. --- 2. Mid Cycle Corrections: The Liquidity Pivot Now look at the mid cycle drawdowns: * 2015 correction: roughly 48% * 2019–2020 correction: roughly 72% * Current drawdown: roughly 52% What happened during those moments? Central Banks ended QT. Liquidity stopped falling. A transition toward QE began. These corrections were violent, but they happened at liquidity inflection points. That matters. These were not random crashes. They were liquidity resets inside broader expansion cycles. --- 3. The Real Driver: QE vs QT QE expands the monetary base. QT contracts it. Bitcoin thrives when: * Liquidity expands * Financial conditions ease * Risk appetite increases Bitcoin struggles when: * Liquidity contracts * Yields rise * Risk assets get repriced When you overlay Bitcoin with Central Bank Liquidity, the correlation is hard to ignore. This is not about a calendar. It is about capital flows. --- 4. The Critical Question Now The real question is not: “Is the 4 year cycle broken?” The real question is: Will Central Banks turn the liquidity taps back on like they did in: * 2012–2013 * 2016–2017 * 2020–2021 If we see a shift from QT back into meaningful QE, history suggests Bitcoin and the broader crypto market respond aggressively. If liquidity remains tight, rallies may be capped and volatility may persist. --- 5. Strategic Takeaway If you are serious about understanding Bitcoin’s macro structure, you cannot just count waves or track halvings. You need to watch: * Central Bank balance sheets * Global liquidity aggregates * Treasury issuance and absorption * Real rates * Dollar strength Bitcoin is maturing. It is no longer purely a retail driven narrative asset. It is increasingly sensitive to global liquidity cycles. The next major move will not be decided by a block reward reduction. It will be decided by liquidity. That is what determines whether this current drawdown is a mid cycle correction… or something larger. And that is where your focus should be.“