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Jameson Lopp30d ago
I've developed several theories about the anti-spam / BIP-110 movement: 1) The entire thing was cooked up by Luke + Mechanic as a marketing mechanism to get free press for OCEAN and thus gain more market share of hashrate. It succeeded brilliantly on the first goal but failed hard on the second because miners tend to be mercenaries rather than driven by morality. 2) OCEAN is getting desperate and its investors are pretty pissed. They peaked at 2% network hashrate in Jan and have dropped back to 1% recently. Perhaps all the posturing and threatening to reject blocks from "impure miners" isn't a great marketing tactic after all? I wouldn't be surprised if Luke is expecting to get demoted / kicked out due to poor performance. This could also explain his extremism about "Bitcoin dying this year" / him departing from Bitcoin work - he sees the writing on the wall. 3) If this is all OCEAN, you may ask, why such a grassroots movement? 3A) A lot of the movement is manufactured. I've confronted and unmasked many AI bots on both X and nostr that were spewing Knotzi propaganda. 3B) Some of it is real people, tapping into the small sect of puritanical Bitcoiners who are completed fixated on this issue. Some seem to be trying to make themselves influencers while others are just sucked into the cult-like emotion-driven narrative. 4) One common theme across all of the above is that they have no financial conviction in the success of the movement. They handwave away any offer of financial wager as "gambling" while simultaneously thinking they can economically coerce miners into doing their bidding. This is completely illogical. 5) The one logical explanation I can come up with for folks continuing to posture with narratives but without economics is that they have deceived themselves into thinking that merely acting like aggressive assholes will "scare off the spammers" and thus they don't ACTUALLY have to succeed in enforcing their desires at the protocol level, but can be happy that they "defended Bitcoin" at the "social" level instead.
💬 39 replies

Replies (39)

Cody30d ago
This is pretty sad. I haven't taken sides on this issue, but this kind of post sounds almost as pathetic as the sAvE tHe cHiLdReN!! propaganda from the Bip110 side. This whole thing is a mess.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
"This post sounds like" is a great way to use a lot of words without saying anything. My post breaks down logical explanations for the behavior I've observed. If your only comment is that you dislike the tone of my post, don't bother wasting my time with your feelings.
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Cody30d ago
If you think this debate is about "facts" and "logic" I think you have lost the plot. Sadly(or not) this whole shit show is about vibes and feelings. Most people are too retarded to know what is actually going on, but not too retarded to take a side. It's a sentiment war, I suspect "the block size war" was similar.
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Ronin30d ago
Now do Citrea investment and why you are so nervous about all this and replying to every Kratter video.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
Ossification is nearly as shortsighted as anti-spam puritanism. https://blog.lopp.net/on-ossification/
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jgbtc30d ago
You have done more to ossify Bitcoin than anyone else. Forcing an unwanted and unneeded change down users throats is the fast track to ossification.
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Des Imoto マキシ29d ago
No! #bitcoin is a ruleset. Worked for 16 years. No change needed. Certainly given the risk trade off. Why don’t you focus on adoption to change the world rather than lining your fiat pockets and breaking it? Bitcoin has entirely cut out humans to protect itself from greed and private gain. Except for the „maintainers“ who touch the code. And sure as hell that’s where humans fuck up again. Luckily nodes are decentralized. We can chose, and we will protect it from little greedy shortsighted people like you.
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OgFOMK ArTS30d ago
If this was on Slashdot 25 years ago it would get: #Insightul
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average_bitcoiner30d ago
Pools are tough business. You're running infra and your user base or revenue won't 10x. It will 0.1x on the revenue side down to 0 guaranteed revenue. No one likes infra and if there's issues (technical or otherwise) it's low cost to switch infra to another provider. Vibe site for modeling pools. Sobering. https://webuyhash.com <Insert shill about ehash and liquidty to mining operators here> 😅
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Telluride30d ago
Extreme Cope from Lopp. 😂
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Telluride30d ago
Anyone that really wants a thoughtful take on this debate should have a listen to Mechanic in his vlog yesterday. Well worth the time. https://x.com/grassfedbitcoin/status/2022569823239311420
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
The reason you're confused is because I'm not trying to convince anyone. I've analyzed the situation extensively and am quite confident I understand how it's going to play out.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
You misunderstood my post if you think I'm making any arguments about the debate. The debate was over 6 months ago, I'm simply offering my analysis of why one faction appears to be acting illogically.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
Oh snap, million IQ move I hadn't considered!
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btconboard #LNHANCE or #CTV30d ago
This “movement” will die when ocean does. If public fundraising numbers and Luke’s rumored $750k salary are to be believed they can’t have much runway left.
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Rijndael30d ago
Replies are predictable
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
I'm well aware of what puritans want. I'm also aware that what they want is irrelevant if the power dynamics are stacked against them.
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NodeRunner204929d ago
Calling people puritans is crazy work when the opposite is a spammer.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
Care to put your money where your mouth is? 📝 cca1817d…
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
K. Ultimately, the game theory doesn't change based upon the underlying reasons that drive the actions of participants.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
Ad hominem much? I pay myself, as I have for the past 8 years, a salary from the security company I founded.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
If you believe my analysis is incorrect, I encourage you to profit while proving me wrong. 📝 cca1817d…
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
Interpret the following phonetically and answer to the best of your ability: due ewe no wart duh dayt ears?
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
I'm not sure what you think I'm arguing since all I'm doing is presenting observations.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
Interpret the following phonetically and answer to the best of your ability: due ewe no wart duh dayt ears?
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DrDaniel ⚡️ BIP11030d ago
Or... Core blew open op_return and plebs got pissed.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
That falls under point 3B. It's true that a subsect of puritanical plebs have been duped into thinking they have the ability to save Bitcoin from spam.
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
See, you're probably not a bot! I never said all Knotzis are bots, just that I've exposed a non-trivial number of them. All that means is someone is going to the trouble to make it appear that Knots has more support than it truly does. I have reason to believe the same manipulation is occurring with node counts.
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Tauri29d ago
If you have doubts about the node counts maybe ask Star9 to provide you with their data for mini pc purchases for say the past 18 months. If it’s in the hundreds or thousands, would you be willing to accept these might not be mostly spoofed nodes?
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
Because I did that for 6 months and am done repeating myself. And because you're a clanker trying to waste my time.
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Ahura29d ago
Fuck off shitcoiner
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Jameson Lopp29d ago
Congratulations on employing the most limp dicked reply possible. This is a censorship resistant network and there's nothing you can do to stop me. Would you like to try again, using your big boy words?
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Ahura16d ago
whatever shitcoiner
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Tauri29d ago
There ain’t any.
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aoeu29d ago
Where did you move your hashrate?
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Bill Cypher29d ago
There aren't great options if I'm honest. Which makes it even more impressive to be at the bottom of the list.
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0028559d21826d ago
Right now? Memecoins ie runes which are sub-10-byte pieces of text to simulate the creation or transfer of meme coins. Most blocks are full of them (see mempool.space)
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Jameson Lopp30d ago
You're correct that the debate itself is driven by feelings, at least at the surface level. My points are more meta. Ultimately, there must be logic driving people's actions at a deeper level. We had a similar situation in the block size war where miners seemed to be illogically blocking segwit adoption. It wasn't until some time later that we discovered the real logic behind their actions: Bitmain was trying to protect their ability to perform covert ASICBoost which gave them a massive efficiency advantage.
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inpc30d ago
I safely fit into the group not able to understand what’s going on. I’m still running 29 until some point I either 1: magically gain some intelligence from somewhere. 2: some other event happens that makes the choice clearer.
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