S2Underground

//The Wire//2300Z March 16, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: IRANIAN STRIKES AND AMERICAN BOMBINGS REMAIN CONSTANT AS GULF STATES MORE OPENLY CENSOR DAMAGE REPORTS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Persian Gulf: Over the weekend Iranian strikes on Dubai have continued, with the fuel point at the airport being hit early this morning. The Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE was also hit, and burned throughout the day. American positions in Baghdad have also been under constant attack over the past few days, to include the first documented operational use of an FPV drone for an attack, which was conducted at Camp Victory a few days ago by pro-Iran militias in and around the capital region. Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait was hit again overnight, with the Italians reporting one of their hangars (and the MQ-9 housed within) being destroyed. -HomeFront- California: Last night a shooting was reported at a Spring Break event in Santa Monica. Two people were wounded during the shooting, both of which suffered non-life-threatening wounds. The suspect was identified as Jaysawn Williams, who was arrested after being wounded in the attack. Analyst Comment: Despite initial media reports implying terrorism, right now this shooting looks like a gang shooting, rather than a more deliberate attack. However the investigation continues, and more details are expected as victim testimony becomes more public. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The war in the Middle East has shifted into the phase where numbers alone do not accurately convey the situation. Perhaps this was never the case, however at this point, describing the number of bombs dropped and drones launched is not exactly representative of how the war is going. For example, if the reports by various nations in the Middle East are accurate (which at this point is not a guarantee) the total number of drone and missile attacks by Iran has decreased. According to the UAE (which has been caught manipulating their data), only 6 drones attacks were reported last night...but the effectiveness of these strikes has sharply increased. That "6 drone" figure might be misleading or it may be ignoring the Iranian strikes that were successful. Either way, at least two drone strikes were incredibly effective last night, with one direct hit being reported on the fuel point at the Dubai airport, and another at the Fujairah Oil complex. At the northern end of the Persian Gulf, at least the Kuwaitis are being honest about their failed interceptions, with their latest report admitting that of the four drones launched at their nation last night, they only intercepted one. Considering this development, two polar opposite analytical positions can easily be arrived at, depending on how one reads the raw data. It's possible that the Iranians are decreasing the numbers of drones launched because they are running out or American targeting has been effective. Or, one can surmise that the Iranians are now able to conserve their resources, because they now have their targets dialed in and their Command and Control (C2) systems have now recovered from the decapitation strikes that started the war. Either theory will be largely opinion based, as the intelligence gaps regarding the war are very significant at this point. In war, nothing is certain, and right now all sides are attempting to over-estimate their gains, and downplay their losses. As unfortunate as it may be to observe, in a war where the grand strategy of all belligerents is based on hubris, the scale often tips in favor of the defender, or at least the fight for the attacker becomes much harder than it otherwise would have been. This would be wise to consider as the war enters it's third week, and neither American bases in the region nor the merchant vessels in the Strait appear to be granted any reprieve anytime soon. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 Today we dive into the threats at home and overseas, and examine how the war is continuing to expand. International power structures are changing, the drones keep flying, and the American people are not exactly being told the truth about this war. All of which indicates a spicy springtime is on the horizon. https://youtu.be/Q70RSF64H8o

//The Wire//2300Z March 13, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TERROR ATTACKS CONTINUE IN THE AMERICAN HOMELAND. WAR CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT CRASHES IN IRAQ, NO SURVIVORS REPORTED.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Persian Gulf: Last night CENTCOM reported the loss of one KC-135 Stratotanker, which crashed in western Iraq. Rescue operations were conducted immediately, however all six crew members have been confirmed deceased. The incident occurred as a result of a mid-air collision, which involved another KC-135 aircraft that was also damaged. Strait of Hormuz: This morning another commercial vessel was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which resulted in catastrophic damage to the vessel. The crew abandoned ship, and several crew members remain missing. Turkey: Another ballistic missile was intercepted overnight, as Iranian forces continue to target Incirlik Airbase. This is the third such interception since the war began. UAE: Overnight drone attacks continued to strike Dubai, with the International Financial Center being struck by a Shahed drone yesterday evening. Analyst Comment: Today was also the third day in a row that the UAE has changed their reporting criteria. Social media reports no longer list the total number of drones that impact within their country, with the daily rollup reports instead stating the number of drones and missiles that were "dealt with". Due to the video confirmation of drones impacting within Dubai overnight, these reports are now openly misleading, as the number of successful Iranian strikes remains unreported. -HomeFront- Michigan: Yesterday afternoon a vehicle ramming and small arms attack was reported at Temple Israel, one of the largest synagogues in Michigan. The attack began as a vehicle ramming attack targeting the main entrance to the facility. After the suspect breached the entrance, he exited the vehicle and was engaged by security personnel on site, who neutralized the attacker. Initial reports claim that the suspect also had explosives inside his vehicle, however authorities have not confirmed this yet as the vehicle caught fire during the incident and burned down a substantial portion of the structure, including the suspect. No one but the attacker was killed during the attack. Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has been identified as Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, a naturalized US Citizen originally from Lebanon. Some sources claim that he conducted the attack due to to his family being killed in an Israeli airstrike on a refugee camp in Beirut yesterday, however these claims cannot be independently verified at this time. Either way, the suspect attacked the 12,000-member synagogue on a Thursday afternoon when almost no one was at the facility, which is an indicator that the terrorist did not have much time to plan the attack. More information is expected later on, as forensic analysis of the remains and vehicle debris is conducted. Virginia: Yesterday a mass shooting was reported at Old Dominion University after a terrorist entered a classroom and began targeting students. Local authorities state that a lone gunman entered an ROTC classroom at ODU shortly before 11:00am yesterday morning, first shooting the instructor, who has been identified as LTC Brandon Shah. Immediately after the first shots were fired, the cadets in the classroom mounted a counterattack, using violence of action to subdue the attacker. At some point during the attack one cadet produced a pocket knife which was subsequently utilized in stabbing the attacker to death. The assailant was found dead by police at the scene after being stabbed 22x times. Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has been identified as Mohamad Bailor Jalloh, a naturalized US citizen from Sierra Leone and former National Guard soldier who had previously been convicted of attempting to carry out a terrorist attack. In 2016, Jalloh was arrested after attempting to procure firearms with the intent to carry out a Fort Hood-style mass shooting, which resulted in him being imprisoned in 2017 before he was released in 2024. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, local pro-Iranian militia groups such as the infamous Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have claimed credit for downing the KC-135 over western Iraq last night. However, it's extremely unlikely that the aircraft was shot down based on the damage that was sustained by the other KC-135 involved in the incident. The damaged tail section of the surviving aircraft contained no fragmentation or blast damage indicative of a missile strike, which would be expected in the event of combat damage. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 11, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS TARGETED BY IRANIANS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IRANIAN DRONE STRIKES REPORTED IN OMAN. POSSIBLE TERROR ATTACK OCCURS IN SWITZERLAND.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Drone attacks throughout the Persian Gulf continue as before, with significant strikes being reported at the port city of Salalah in Oman this morning. Several drones targeted the oil storage tanks near the port, which have been burning throughout the day. Strait of Hormuz: This morning three merchant vessels were struck by Iranian munitions in the vicinity of the waterway. Two vessels were struck off the coast of Dubai and Ras al Khaymah, one of which was a containership that sustained unspecified damage. To the northeast, another vessel (the M/V MAYUREE NAREE) was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which caused a fire that has since been extinguished. The crew of this vessel has reportedly abandoned ship in the hours after the strike, and three crew members remain missing. Analyst Comment: In addition to the threats posed by drones and missiles, concerns are growing regarding the possibility that the Strait may have been mined. President Trump indicated that the Iranians may have attempted to target vessels with naval mines over the past few days, however statements by American officials so far have have been inconclusive as to whether or not any mines have actually been laid. Due to this uncertainty, it would be wise for shipping companies to assume that at least some asymmetric naval capability exists within the Iranian Navy. Switzerland: Yesterday evening an attack was reported onboard a city bus in the town of Kerzers. One assailant set himself on fire while sitting on the bus, killing 6x people during the attack and wounding 5x others. Analyst Comment: So far, very little information has been released regarding this attack. The assailant has not been identified, and it may take some time for any potential motive to emerge. Due to the mass casualties that were caused by this incident, this incident should be considered a terror attack until more information comes to light. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported at the White House, which involved an SUV attempting to ram through the barricades at the corner of Connecticut and H Street. No injuries were reported and the driver was arrested at the scene. No word yet on what caused the incident, or if this was a deliberate attack. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are mounting that missile defenses throughout the Middle East may be dwindling. Over the past few days, civilian aircraft have been repositioned from airports around the region, and several airlines have canceled flights throughout the region, such as KLM which has halted flights to Dubai until March 28th. As airspace opens up between waves of drone attacks, many commercial and private aircraft owners are taking the opportunity to get their airframes out of harms way. As a result of these developments, many locals believe this an indicator of interceptor missiles running dry, and thus what seemed like a fairly tepid war (by comparison) might suddenly get more active if the interceptions of drones become less common. This is obviously pure speculation based on an unknown factor; the true number of air defenses any nation has is a closely guarded secret. The same theory applies around the region, from Israel to Kuwait, with nearly all nations involved heavily suppressing any social media posts referencing successful Iranian targeting efforts. Nevertheless, the truth eventually gets out and what can be observed is that the drones still fly and interceptions are not always successful. And that success rate may be decreasing, if the data provided is accurate. Using the UAE as an example, it is true that drone attacks targeting the nation have decreased over the past two days. From the start of the war, Dubai has fended off about a hundred drones and roughly a dozen ballistic missiles each day. Over the past couple of days, the total number of reported drone attacks have dwindled to about one-third of what has been normal since the start of the war. However, the number of successful interceptions have dwindled too: Of the 35x drones detected yesterday, only 26x were intercepted...with 9x drones impacting within the country. Whether or not they hit their intended targets is unknown, however this many drones making it through defenses on D+11 is substantially important. This also confirms that Iranian forces maintain enough operational effectiveness to conduct Over-the-Horizon targeting, causing just enough trouble to make the fight costly in the long run. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 4, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS ALLIED RADAR INSTALLATIONS TARGETED BY IRANIAN FORCES. US NAVY SINKS IRANIAN FRIGATE OFF COAST OF SRI LANKA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The large-scale bombing of targets within Iran continues, with hundreds of bombs being dropped day and night. Around the region, overnight satellite imagery confirmed that Iranian forces have successfully struck multiple American Air Defense installations. Concerning American battle damage, the following radar arrays have been damaged or destroyed since the conflict began. Qatar: A/N FPS-132 Block 5 array - Hit, unknown damage. Kuwait: 3x unknown radomes destroyed. Bahrain: 2x AN/GSC-52B radomes destroyed. UAE: THAAD battery at Al-Ruwais confirmed struck, damage unknown. Saudi Arabia: A/N TPY-2 radar site (used with the THAAD system) struck at Prince Sultan Airbase. Jordan: THAAD battery at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase possibly struck, unknown damage. Analyst Comment: These radar arrays are not tiny fire-control systems mounted on a HMMWV, these are major strategic assets for air defense throughout the hemisphere, not just the Middle East. The FPS-132 alone costs over a billion dollars and there are only six of these sites in the entire world. Similarly, there are only nine THAAD batteries in existence globally, and the Iranians just hit one (possibly two) of them with a munition that cost about $30k each. Strait of Hormuz: The war on the high seas continues as multiple commercial vessels have been struck by drones overnight. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center has reported a total of four commercial vessels being hit with unknown munitions over the past 24 hours, sustaining unknown damage. Two container ships, a BCC, and a tanker vessel were all hit or targeted by unknown munitions. Analyst Comment: Merchant traffic within the Strait is mostly at a standstill, as nobody wants to run the the gauntlet and risk hundreds of millions of dollars if something goes wrong. At this present time, drone and missile attacks are effective enough to prevent any large merchant vessel from transiting the waterway. Turkey: This morning the Turkish Defense Ministry stated that an Iranian ballistic missile was shot down in their nation. The missile was shot down by a US Navy vessel in the Eastern med, and the debris landed near the town of Dörtyol in the southeastern region of the country. Lebanon: The Israeli ground invasion continues, with the IDF ordering the evacuation of Lebanese citizens to north of the Litani River. Roughly 15% of the land mass of Lebanon has been ordered to evacuate by Israel, as the IDF continues pushing north. Indian Ocean: This morning the US Navy torpedoed an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka. The IRIS *DENA* was sunk by an American submarine with the crew abandoning ship overnight. The Sri Lankan Navy has conducted rescue operations of about 30 survivors, with about half of the crew remaining missing. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Regarding the evacuations of Americans from the Middle East, so far the situation is complicated. The US State Department has provided emergency phone numbers for Americans stranded overseas to call, but reports are mixed regarding Americans actually being evacuated. Commercial flights remain sporadic, and most Americans stranded in the region are being told to sit tight until flights are available. Airspace closures remain throughout the entire region, and most airlines are attempting to fly out whenever they can. Dubai is the world's busiest airport, and so far it's been averaging a few dozen flights in and out each day, when previously the average was over a thousand flights per day. The smaller airport in Muscat, Oman is the next-closest hub from which evacuations are occurring, however it's nearly all private aircraft at this point since all commercial options have been booked. Considering the damage that has likely been done to American radar sites around the region, if it is true that Early Warning capabilities have been degraded as a result of Iranian strikes, more serious targeting efforts could continue over the next few days. Although, the systems that have been hit are mostly for high-altitude ballistic missile threats, and not the smaller drones that are threatening the Gulf States most effectively at the moment. This is the fundamental nature of this war: Every missile interception has to succeed every single time, but the Iranians only have to be successful once to cause enough uncertainty both with maritime shipping and civil aviation, to cause problems. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z March 3, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERSIAN GULF. SAUDI FORCES DEPLOY TO QUELL RIOTS IN BAHRAIN. MAJOR OIL FACILITIES SHUT DOWN THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST DUE TO STRIKES. ISRAEL LAUNCHES GROUND INVASION OF LEBANON.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The Gulf War continues as Iranian forces begin shifting to strategic targets. Most of the drone/missile attacks overnight targeted oil production facilities, such as the Fujairah Industrial Zone in the UAE, which has been taken offline. Otherwise, the attacks on American installations continue, with the American Embassy in Riyadh being hit multiple times by drones overnight. Bahrain: Significant riots have broken out around the country, as the majority-Shia population begins expressing dissent with the Sunni government, and more specifically the American presence within the nation. Saudi Forces crossed the bridge this morning with anti-riot forces to help quell the more kinetic protests, which have become intense over the past 24 hours. Analyst Comment: Politics in Bahrain were complicated before the war, as the population is mostly Shia (and aligned with the Ayatollah), but the country is ruled by a Kingdom that is Sunni. Even before the shooting started the situation was tenuous at best, and the assassination of the Ayatollah might have been the spark needed to kick off a civil conflict within the island nation. This is a complicating factor for the United States, as Bahrain has long served as a major Center of Gravity for American combat power in the region. Now that some locals are getting rowdy (and are also aligned with Iran), this will make things more difficult. Lebanon: This morning Israeli forces launched a ground invasion in the south, opening up another front so as to seize terrain along the border. Lebanese Army forces have withdrawn from the border as Israeli units advance. Analyst Comment: It is not clear as to if this is a legitimate, full-scale ground invasion, or limited border incursions that Israel is known to do throughout southern Lebanon. So far, Israeli forces haven't crossed their limit of advance set during the height of the conflict two years ago. United Kingdom: A stabbing attack was reported in Edinburgh, which resulted in a standoff lasting several hours yesterday afternoon. One unidentified assailant began stabbing people an apartment building, which resulted in two people being wounded. After the attack, the suspect fled into the apartment building, which resulted in a standoff situation that lasted seven hours. Eventually, police were able to breach the building and detain the suspect. Separately, in Birmingham a different stabbing attack was captured on film this morning, which involved an assailant stabbing a man on the street outside a Catholic school in Alum Rock. This attacker was arrested at the scene, and very few details remain public regarding his identity. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Yesterday afternoon the US State Department published the list of nations that Americans should evacuate from, which includes the entire Middle East. The "depart now" order has been issued for the nations of: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the UAE, and Yemen. However, the US State Department has stated that Americans are on their own regarding evacuations. Even though the start of this combat operation was easily predicted down to the exact day (and nearly the exact hour) that it began, the United States somehow believes that they needed to maintain the element of surprise. The State Department believed that if they made attempts to evacuate the Middle East before the attack, the world would know that the war was imminent. This is also why many American bases appear to not be fortified as much as they could have been. In many cases, the Pentagon appears to not understand that their operation was very observable to the public, and their attempts to maintain the secrecy that they thought they had, resulted in little preparation in some areas. False sense of operational security aside, what this means at the moment is logistical challenges because everyone is having to sit tight for the moment until the war calms down enough to make evacuation flights reliable. A handful of flights have been able to make it in and out of Dubai, despite heavy GPS jamming efforts in the region. The governments of Britain and Poland are tentatively looking to start militarily-organized evacuation flights throughout the region over the next few days, however details are not yet solidified regarding these efforts. Italy has already conducted the military evacuation of some of their citizens from the region, who arrived back in Italy this morning. So far, the official policy of the US State Department is that US Citizens are on their own, and not a single evacuation flight of Americans has yet taken place to evacuate American citizens from the region. Right now, it might not seem like much, but time is in fact running out. Every single western-aligned Arab nation in the region is running out of interceptor missiles, with some nations reporting that they have burned through many years worth of their supply in just the past two days. Just this morning alone, the UAE blew through 172 interceptor missiles to take out 172 Iranian munitions that would have otherwise impacted targets inside their country. While it is unconfirmed hearsay at the moment, the rumor throughout the region is that the US has declined to restock these supplies, as most stockpiles of interceptor missiles have been allocated for Israel. As a result, this war is now a marathon to see who has more missiles, the Iranians or the other Persian Gulf states. At the moment, hundreds of drones and missiles are being intercepted out over the Gulf every day...the viral videos of drones slamming into targets on land are merely the munitions that have made it through missile defenses, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the true number of drones and missiles that are being launched. This has lead many to the false assumption that this war will fade away within a few days, because they can't visually see the interceptions that are taking place out over the water. However, it's now Day Four of this conflict, and the drone attacks have remained constant. When/if missile interceptors dwindle, these munitions will have nothing stopping them from reaching their targets. Last night, President Trump stated that American stockpiles of munitions are at adequate levels, and that "Wars can be fought 'forever'" at current stockpile levels of medium-grade munitions. Despite the rather unfortunate choice of vocabulary in this post, the cold hard truth is that the US has not been supplying the Arab nations that are now getting hit, with the munitions necessary for their defense, or more importantly, the defense of American assets (and citizens) in the region. This will complicate the self-evacuation of Americans over the next few weeks, in addition to sharply increasing the potential for more widespread drone strikes over the next few days. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z March 2, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES TEXAS. GULF WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS IRANIAN FORCES STRIKE AMERICAN BASES AND OIL FIELDS. MULTIPLE AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN IN FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS. QATAR SHOOTS DOWN TWO IRANIAN FIGHTERS OVER PERSIAN GULF.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The Gulf War continues to expand, with nearly every nation throughout the region being involved as airstrikes and drone/missile attacks remain regular around the clock. Kuwait: This morning, three separate American F-15E's were shot down due to alleged friendly fire incidents after allegedly being engaged by Kuwaiti air defense systems. All six pilots and weapons officers ejected and were rescued from the desert by Kuwaiti forces. Analyst Comment: This situation was rather dicey as local Kuwaitis on the ground initially thought that the Americans parachuting down were Iranians. This is possibly due to the American parachutes from the ACES II ejection seats being in the standard colors of Orange, White, and Green (which has been a standard for a long time). Unfortunately, this also looks very similar to the colors of the Iranian flag as it's descending on a residential neighborhood. As a result, several Kuwaitis responded to the crash site with weapons drawn, until it became clear that they were Americans. After the Americans were identified, they were protected and rendered aid until they were recovered safely back to American lines. Saudi Arabia: Most of the targeting efforts by the Iranians have focused on hitting oil infrastructure. This morning, the Ras Tanura refinery was been shut down completely following Iranian drone strikes, which halts roughly 16% of Saudi Arabia's total oil production capacity. Qatar: All Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production has been halted due to Iranian strikes, and the airport in Doha remains closed at the moment. This morning Qatari forces downed two Iranian Su-24 fighters which were sortied to conduct targeting within their nation. Analyst Comment: If this report is accurate, this would be the first indication that the Iranians still maintain some limited air combat power, even though the runways at most of their airports have been cratered. UAE: In the Emirates, Iranian forces have been hitting Dubai and Abu Dhabi hard over the past two days. Power plants, oil terminals, and other energy infrastructure have been targeted, along with more military targets. The French Naval Base in Abu Dhabi was hit by Iranian munitions, and the fires have been burning overnight. Bahrain: The semi-former headquarters of the US Navy's 5th Fleet has been heavily damaged, with a significant portion of the base being completely destroyed. This morning, Iranian forces struck an American strategic oil tanker, the M/T *STENA IMPERATIVE*, as she was sitting in port. Cyprus: The British Airbase at Akrotiri Airport has been targeted by Iranian missiles/drones several times over the past two days, with heavy smoke being reported at the installation sporadically yesterday afternoon. Israel: Substantial targeting efforts continue by the Iranians, with many ballistic missile strikes being carried out overnight. Rocket attacks by Hezbollah cells in Lebanon continue, with the IDF conducting several airstrikes in downtown Beirut in response yesterday evening. Regarding civilian infrastructure in the Middle East, most major airports throughout the entire region are closed for flights, most notably Kuwait International, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain. Right now, the main logistical hub for citizens fleeing the region is Riyadh, however the Saudis stated overnight that King Khalid International Airport was targeted by Iran. The ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted, but the window for evacuations throughout much of the region is probably closed for a while. Some airlines in Dubai are attempting to re-commence evacuation flights this evening, pending any attacks on the airport. Concerning American casualties so far, four American service members have been killed as a result of Iranian strikes throughout the region. Pakistan: Attacks at the US Consulate in Karachi have escalated as rioters have began engaging the Marines inside the compound with small arms. Pakistanis have taken pot-shots from pistols at the Consulate throughout the day, and the Marine Security Detachment has been able to hold the compound so far. -HomeFront- Texas: Saturday night, a terror attack was reported at a bar in Austin, which resulted in a mass casualty event. One gunman entered Buford's Bar on 6th street, and began shooting the patrons inside, before being killed during the attack. The suspect has been identified as Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized US citizen originally from Senegal. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with 14x wounded as a result of the attack. Analyst Comment: Right now most assumptions regarding this attack jump to the conclusion that this individual was one of the infamous Iranian "sleeper cell" agents that has been "activated" in response to events in the Middle East. At this moment, the evidence points to this being a lone-wolf attack as the suspect was wearing a pro-Islam sweatshirt during the attack, and underneath he was also wearing a shirt portraying the flag of Iran. Beyond these basic details, it will be crucial for the investigation to determine whether this guy was a random lone-wolf, or if there was some prior communication/coordination regarding this attack. In short, we don't know if he was communicating with Iranians or not, but he very likely conducted the attack due to events in the Middle East. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Right now, there is a lot of confusion pertaining to the messaging by American officials regarding this war. On the one hand, the United States has stated frequently that most Iranian military infrastructure has been decimated, but on the other hand everyone can see the drones hitting targets rather effectively, so what gives? Per long-standing doctrine, Iranian military leadership has substantially expanded on the idea of delegating authority to lower and lower levels of command, so as to ensure effective combat operations in the event that decapitation strikes took out most of their senior leadership. The Iranian's have been planning for this eventuality for some time, and thus their military infrastructure can be described in a single word: Redundancy. It is this theory that is being proven somewhat correct right now, as Iranian forces have been able to not just continue strikes, but launch increasingly more significant missile barrages throughout the Middle East...after most of their military leadership has been killed. As a result, even the effective decapitation strikes during the initial phases of the war, while a great success, were still not enough to stop the effectiveness of the command and control efforts at lower levels. Even going back to the 1980's Iran has been the textbook example of how cutting off the head of the snake, won't result in the body giving up the fight as quickly as the United States would hope. How long the Iranians can keep this up, is the 64-million-dollar question, but for now, killing the entire upper echelon of Iranian military leadership won't do much to reduce combat effectiveness in the short term. The missiles and drones that continue to fly by the minute are evidence of this doctrine, which continue to seriously threaten both civilian and military infrastructure throughout the region. All of this is supported by recent comments made by President Trump, confirming that this operation could take up to a month. Over 900x sorties have been conducted by US forces so far, and the level-bombers which have been forward deployed probably haven't even begun the large-scale bombings yet. As with all military operations, time will tell how it goes, and in this case the enduring question is how much damage Iran can do, as their scorched-earth campaign continues throughout the region. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1500Z March 1, 2026// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. US CONSULATE UNDER ATTACK IN KARACHI, 9X RIOTERS KILLED AS US MARINES DEFEND THE COMPOUND. AYATOLLAH CONFIRMED DEAD FOLLOWING AIRSTRIKE. MISSILE AND DRONE STRIKES CONTINUE AROUND THE REGION.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Yesterday afternoon, President Trump confirmed the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in an airstrike in Tehran. Most of his senior advisors were also killed in the same engagement. On the maritime front, this morning one commercial tanker vessel was struck by an Iranian drone, with the crew of the M/T *SKYLIGHT* abandoning ship after their vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. A few hours ago a second tanker was reportedly struck in the Strait, with the M/T *MKD VYOM* being struck also attempting to transit the waterway this morning. Analyst Comment: Of note, the *SKYLIGHT* does not appear to have been attempting to transit the Strait and has likely been anchored in the same place for a few years. This vessel was actually serving the Iranian oil industry, and was on the US sanctions list, so the Iranians appear to have targeted one of their own ships, possibly so that the Americans couldn't make use of it. Significant strikes have been reported at the Jebel Ali petroleum terminals in Dubai, and satellite imagery of Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait has confirmed that the base fuel point was hit, with the fuel bladders/blivets at this location burning overnight. All total, drone and missile attacks have remained constant throughout the day and night, with the various Interior and Defense Ministries of the following nations providing data on how many interceptions have been conducted overnight: Qatar: 65 ballistic missiles and 12 drones intercepted. Bahrain: 45 missiles and 9 drones intercepted. Jordan: 49 missiles and drones (combined figure), 13 of which were intercepted. Israel: Over 200 missiles and drones intercepted U.A.E. - 137 missiles and 209 drones detected, 195 of which were intercepted successfully. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have acknowledged strikes targeting their countries, however neither have confirmed how many drones/missiles have been intercepted. Analyst Comment: Note that these figures only encapsulate the munitions that were successfully intercepted and shot down; most countries don't want to publish the data of how many drones actually made it through their defenses, so the figure for how many strikes have been conducted so far is hard to discern. This time around all belligerents are exercising good operational security, so details of strikes are often hard to find via social media. This is most sharply demonstrated in Israel, where hundreds of strikes are occurring, but difficult to pinpoint on a map due to the exact location of strikes rarely being reported. Pakistan: Overnight, riots broke out at the US Consulate General in Karachi, which rapidly transitioned into an attempt to breach the American compound. After some time, rioters breached the outer security cordon, and US Marines which had taken up defensive positions inside the facility opened fire on the intruders before they could breach the secondary line of security around the perimeter. Analyst Comment: Details are extremely hard to verify, however local sources claim that a total of 9x Pakistani rioters were killed during the engagements so far, and the Marines have successfully held the Key Terrain around the Consulate for the past few hours. However tensions are rising, and if the videos of the riots are any indication, Pakistan is not up to the task of defending the American compound, as rioters were allowed to breach, destroy, and set the outer cordon of the American diplomatic post on fire, with no Pakistani security anywhere to be seen. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Around the United States, various efforts are underway to enhance the security posture of various locations and entities. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott has activated service members to take part in Operation FURY SHIELD, a defensive operation to strengthen security at critical infrastructure sites around the state, in the event that retaliatory efforts via lone-wolf actors attempt to conduct attacks within the homeland. Similarly, the NYPD in New York is increasing patrols throughout the city, and several military bases around the United States remain at an elevated security posture. Right now these efforts are probably being conducted out of an abundance of caution, however it does confirm that at least someone is thinking about the potential for events overseas, to impact the homeland in the form of terrorism. This has, of course, been a concern for decades, however based on the widening war in the Middle East, it would be wise to remain vigilant and situationally aware for the next few weeks, as the conflict continues to inflame tensions here at home. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/qxeW_jI7M3o

//The Wire//1300Z February 28, 2026// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: WAR BEGINS WITH IRAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: This morning the war began as American and Israeli forces conducted pre-emptive strikes throughout Iran. Major bombings have been reported throughout most major cities around the county, with the heaviest concentrations of bombings taking place in Tehran. In response, Iranian forces have conducted missile strikes targeting American bases in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and several other locations. Missile impacts have been observed at Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait, Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, Al Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, Muwaffaq Airbase in Jordan, and at the headquarters of 5th Fleet in Manama, Bahrain. Missile impacts were also reported in Israel, mostly in the port city of Haifa at the moment. In Iraq, the Kataib Hezbollah al-Nujaba group announced that they will begin insurgent attacks on American forces throughout the region, to include the targeting of American civilians working at American-run oil facilities throughout Iraq. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: President Trump posted an 8-minute video to his Truth Social page, explaining the rationale for the war. In the video, President Trump ordered all Iranian forces to lay down their arms and surrender, while urging all Iranian civilians to stay in their homes while the bombings are conducted. President Trump then urged civilians to rise up and overthrown their government. Beyond these basic details, not much else is known regarding the overall end-goal of this war, however bombings have continued constantly throughout the past few hours. President Trump is expected to conduct another address to the nation later this morning. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1500Z February 26, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: POSSIBLE CHEMICAL WEAPONS FACILITY DISCOVERED AT PRIVATE RESIDENCE IN CALIFORNIA. TALKS IN GENEVA CONTINUE AS WAR INCHES CLOSER IN MIDDLE EAST. INVESTIGATION CONTINUES INTO CUBAN BOAT INCIDENT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: This morning the USS *FORD* CSG departed port Souda Bay, bound for operational patrols in the Eastern Med. The drawdown of forces at Al-Udeid continues as well, with only a handful of aircraft remaining at this installation. In Geneva, diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iranian representatives have continued, with reports not really confirming how the talks are going just yet. Analyst Comment: In addition to American aircraft leaving their transponders on for the majority of their flights, China has dutifully been using their own satellite imagery networks to show the world where American forces are being deployed to. This imagery indicates that forces continue staging at bases throughout the region, including F-16's being forward-deployed to Diego Garcia. -HomeFront- California: A possible chemical weapons production facility has been located at a private residence in Irvine. Police responded to a call from a concerned landlord, who had located suspicious items inside a residence just off Irvine Blvd. Local police responded to the residence, and after a few hours, the FBI was on scene investigating what appeared to be a nerve agent that was discovered at the site. Analyst Comment: This incident initially took place some time ago, however none of the inhabitants of this extremely high-income gated community reported the men-in-white-suits investigating a potential weapons lab in their neighborhood, until prompted by journalists who were first alerted to the scene by the Irvine Police Department's post on the matter last night. Since this neighborhood has controlled access, the local news crew had to fly a helicopter over the scene, which revealed the CBNRE teams that are still on the scene processing evidence. Geolocation of this static image (via the solar panels on the roof and the landscaping arrangement) confirms the address as being 77 Cartwheel Street. Orange County property records indicate that this residence is owned by Yu-Ting Huang and Allen Lee. A cursory search of business affiliations in California confirms that both individuals are the CFO and CEO (respectively) of Genetex Inc, a major biotechnology business which allegedly provides reagents for medical testing. Overall, details are very sketchy at the moment, however local media stations have interviewed some of the neighbors who have been willing to talk. According to these reports, various teams of federal agents have been observed on site, to include military service members wearing insignia of a Weapons of Mass Destruction Civil Support Team. Considering the link to Genetex, so far this incident is nearly identical to other Chinese-linked biolabs, such as the facilities in Reedley, California and in Las Vegas, Nevada. Both of these facilities involved super-sketchy businesses which were supposed to be making test kits or reagents for medical testing, however in reality this was merely a front to conceal the manufacture of biological weapons. Regarding the site in Irvine, there is no link readily identifiable to the other sites just yet, beyond the circumstances of the operations being nearly identical. Of note, Genetex has links to Taiwan, not China, however more information is needed to determine exactly what these links are and exactly which individuals were operating the site. More investigation will be needed to discern what was really taking place at this facility, but as of right now, it would be prudent to categorize this as a potential nerve agent production facility, just in case. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Regarding yesterday's Cuban escapade, the situation remains just as clear as before, which is to say not much. Cuban forces are attempting to frame the incident as a Bay of Pigs Part Two, and have stated that the 10x people onboard the vessel were attempting to invade their country. The nationalities of the people onboard the vessel are equally a mystery. Some reports state that they were Americans, while other reports state that they were Cubans who had originally fled the nation, only to return later on. Cuban authorities have identified most of the people they have detained, and all of the names are of Cuban origin, however discerning exact nationality is difficult. For context, Cubans who escape the nation have been known to steal boats in Miami, and pilot those boats back to Cuba either to help others escape, or to run drugs back and forth. Coyotes also prefer to extort Cubans who pay to smuggle themselves into the United States, in a similar manner as was common at the southern US border. On the other hand, Cuban border guards are also known to shoot Cubans who attempt to flee the island by boat without permission, so right now it's a wash as to what this was all about. The boat itself being registered in Florida is probably a clue, as it was reported stolen recently. The United States has not claimed the four KIA as being American yet, and very few statements have been made by American officials, as the investigation continues and all of the evidence is in Cuba. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z February 25, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MEXICAN TRUCKING UNION BEGINS LABOR STRIKE DUE TO CJNG AMBUSHING DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS. AMERICAN FORCES CONTINUE SURGING INTO MIDDLE EAST AS NEGOTIATIONS LOOM. CUBAN FORCES KILL 4 AMERICANS IN SMALL BOAT DURING SKIRMISH IN CUBAN WATERS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The surge of American forces into the region continues, with non-stop flights of C-17's and C-5 cargo aircraft transferring supplies into CENTCOM. Fighter aircraft movements continue as well, with another flight of F-22's departing the United States for Lakenheath overnight, to supplement the 12x F-22's which transitioned to the Middle East a few days ago. Analyst Comment: On the diplomatic front, negotiations between the United States and Iran are scheduled to take place tomorrow in Geneva. So far no real word how things might go, but if the prior negotiations are any indication, stalling for time will probably be a main goal of all parties involved. Caribbean: This afternoon the Cuban Embassy released a press statement confirming that 4x Americans were killed during an incident that took place in Cuban waters just north of Cayo Falcones. Cuban forces reportedly attempted to interdict an American speedboat, and when approached by Border Guard forces, the passengers onboard the vessel began shooting. The Cubans returned fire, killing 4x passengers and wounding 6x others. Analyst Comment: As this is a developing incident at the time of this report, nothing is known beyond the initial press release as posted by Cuba. No American agency or diplomatic post has commented on the situation yet, and the details of what happened are single-source reporting (from the Cuban government) at the moment. More information is expected throughout the evening as the situation develops. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Mexico, the situation remains tenuous as clashes have continued between Cartel and Government forces over the past few days. Random roadblocks and skirmishes pop up sporadically around the country, which have made travel unpredictable for many throughout the region. Government forces have continued raids in the wake of the initial targeting of El Mencho. Yesterday, the Mexican government confirmed the death of El Tuli, El Mencho's Operations Chief, who was killed in a similar raid as his boss. Removing the OPs guy from the CJNG the day after El Mencho was killed probably stunted the response to the initial raid, however random ambushes continue on the highways, largely unabated. These ambushes usually seek to target large semi-trucks, which Cartel members use to block roadways via setting on fire. As a result, this morning, the Mexican Alliance of Transportation Organizations A.C. (AMOTAC, the largest trucking union in Mexico), declared a labor strike due to a total of six truck drivers being murdered in these ambushes throughout the country over the past two days. This strike has largely taken the form of truck drivers refusing to drive, with some even setting their own trucks on fire, before the cartel has the chance to do it. These types of labor strikes are common throughout Mexico, as highway robbery is a common threat throughout Latin America. Consequently, logistical problems are very likely nationwide throughout the next few days, as CJNG forces engage in the time-tested guerilla warfare tactics that made them famous. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2000Z February 24, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED STATES CAPTURES LAST TANKER VESSEL THAT ESCAPED VENEZUELA. IDAHO VEHICLE RAMMING SUSPECT ARRESTED. WEATHER CONDITIONS POOR IN TEHRAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Indian Ocean: Overnight, the United States seized another tanker vessel, interdicting the last remaining vessel that had fled Venezuela in the wake of the Maduro regime's collapse. The M/T *BERTHA* was captured in the Indian Ocean this morning, after running the American blockade weeks ago. Mexico: Over the past 24 hours, most of the violence around the country has taken the form of arson attacks on convenience stores scattered around the nation, and subsequently looting has been reported at the burned-out stores and commercial venues which have been targeted by cartel militants. Sporadic cartel roadblocks continue to be emplaced on major roadways randomly, which mostly take the form of burning vehicles being used to block the roadway. Most of these roadblocks are resolved in a few hours, and are not usually manned by cartel members. Analyst Comment: Otherwise, Government forces have been able to secure the airports, and the US Embassy reported this afternoon that flights have resumed for anyone who so desires to depart. Most of the conflict throughout the past 24 hours has focused on CJNG forces conducting ambush-style attacks on federal forces, rather than overtly controlling terrain. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This afternoon President Trump is scheduled to give the State of the Union Address before Congress. The speech is scheduled for 9:00pm Eastern time. Analyst Comment: For those speculating that the war with Iran will be announced during this address, it will be a little late in the day for that. By the time the speech is scheduled to start, the sun will be about to rise in the Middle East, so it will probably be too late timing-wise if the cover of darkness is necessary for whatever is planned. Idaho: The suspect in the St. Luke's vehicle ramming attack has been identified and was arrested last night. Sarah Elizabeth George, a resident of Boise, has been charged with stealing the ambulance, conducting the ramming attack into the Portico Building, and the subsequent attempted arson. Analyst Comment: As one might expect, the suspect's digital profile indicates that the attack was conducted for ideological reasons, which meets the definition of being classified as terrorism. It is unclear as to if terrorism charges will be filed, but the suspect's social media accounts contain the usual indicators of mental instability and open calls for violence. The suspect was identified after leaving the credit card receipt for the gas cans that were to be used in the attack, at the scene of the crime. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Weather in Tehran is not great, with cloud cover rolling in this afternoon. METeorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs) for points around Tehran indicate an overcast sky at 10,000ft remained in place for much of the day, with a scattered layer situated at 4,000ft. The Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for Imam Khomeini International Airport calls for suboptimal weather conditions (cloud cover and rain) until at least tomorrow night. Weather conditions are constantly changing, however very tentatively, cloud cover is forecasted to be murky at best over the next few days. Lunar illumination peaks this weekend, with the window of 80% illum taking place from roughly February 27th, to March 6th. Meanwhile, cargo flights continue unabated, as more resources constantly flow into the Middle East. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1100Z February 23, 2026// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: CARTEL WAR KICKS OFF IN MEXICO AS CJNG LEADER KILLED BY MEXICAN FORCES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Mexico: Yesterday afternoon Mexican forces conducted a raid in the town of Tapalpa, Jalisco, with the objective of capturing Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes (Alias: "El Mencho"), the leader of the CJNG Cartel. During the operation, El Mencho was killed, which triggered heavy fighting between the Mexican government and the CJNG cartel throughout the afternoon. So far, most of the heavy fighting has been observed in Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, two cities which have historically served as CJNG strongholds. Immediately after Mencho's death, CJNG forces declared a general mobilization throughout Jalisco, which encompasses most of their territory. Most of the fighting throughout the afternoon took the form of knee-jerk, rapid response elements engaging Mexican authorities with small arms and crew served weapons, mostly via skirmishes in the street in various small towns scattered throughout the district. Violence is not confined to just Jalisco, burning vehicles were observed in the town of Reynosa, just across the border from McAllen, Texas. Throughout the evening, a more organized and substantial deployment was undertaken, with heavier weapons and armored vehicles being deployed to engage government forces throughout the region. In the town of Puerto Vallarta, combat actions were reported throughout the afternoon with CJNG briefly holding the city for some time. Within a few hours, Government forces rolled in hard with air support, pushing CJNG out of the city (or at least, out of fighting positions on the street) by nightfall. Throughout the countryside, many roads are impassable due to cartel forces digging anti-tank ditches across the roadway, emplacing roadblocks, and otherwise digging in for what they perceive to be a draw-out fight. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Throughout much of Mexico, the situation can be described as a state of pandemonium and chaos. There's no way to determine front lines or Centers of Gravity at the moment, as all of the violence observed throughout the afternoon is representative of whatever combat power local CJNG cells had at their safehouses. El Mencho was the patriarch of the CJNG, and more of a grandfather figurehead of the cartel family than an operational leader. As one might expect, killing a sicario's grandfather in such a manner has dialed the violence up to eleven. As soon as word got out that El Mencho was dead, everyone grabbed their rifles and started shooting at whatever Mexican authorities were in their area. The next few days will probably see even more organized violence as cartel leadership organizes more significantly for combat actions in the long term. Since the CJNG cartel has been allied with the Gulf Cartel for some time, violence has continued right up to the US border. Due to the rapid breakout of war throughout the region, most entities were not expecting small arms engagements on a peaceful Sunday afternoon. Cities known for heavy tourism industry are directly in the center of much of the fighting, with off-season tourists being caught in the middle of the conflict. As a reminder, Guadalajara is scheduled to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup this summer, and right now many high-level soccer matches have brought scores of tourists and sports fans to the exact district that is now host to heavy fighting. Guests at the many tourist resorts scattered throughout the region suddenly found their afternoon cocktail hour interrupted by gunfire and shrapnel, and throughout the evening most civilians throughout the region spent many hours sheltering in place, or fleeing the area if they could. The US State Department has issued shelter-in-place orders for the following areas: Puerto Vallarta, Chapala, Guadalajara, Tijuana, Tecate, Ensenada, Cancun, Cozumel, Playa del Carmen, and Tulum. Concerning evacuations, the Guadalajara Airport has been closed until further notice, while the conflict continues on the ground in the vicinity of the airport. Most Embassies have urged their citizens in Central Mexico to shelter in place, until the fighting subsides and more information becomes available. Travel by road anywhere in Mexico is subject to being caught up in checkpoints and random roadblocks, either by government forces or the Cartels themselves. More information is expected throughout the day as the sunrise affords the opportunity for battle damage assessment, for the engagements that took place overnight. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/iSmD2Zg_JKo

//The Wire//2300Z February 20, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STRATEGIC MOVEMENT CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. CALTECH SCIENTIST FOUND MURDERED AT HIS HOME IN CALIFORNIA. TERRORIST CONDUCTS VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK ON ELECTRICAL SUBSTATION IN NEVADA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The airlift of American forces into the region has largely transitioned to a steady flow of logistics and cargo aircraft, as the fighters and tankers have completed their forward deployment to airbases mostly in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) flights adjacent to Iranian airspace have continued over the past few days, as last-minute checks are conducted before the final "GO" command is given. Weather: The Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for Imam Khomeini International Airport (OIIE) indicates clear weather for the next few days. Westerly winds of 12 kts are expected in Tehran, and visibility is forecasted to be at least 5 miles for the next few days. Current METARs for other locations around the region confirm that there are no cloud ceilings, and clear skies are expected throughout the next week. Sea conditions in the Gulf are similarly excellent, with the sea state remaining calm throughout the evenings as standard for this time of year. Light chop is expected in the afternoon on Saturday, with otherwise smooth seas expected for the Strait of Hormuz for the new two days. -HomeFront- Nevada: This afternoon authorities in Boulder City released preliminary information regarding a terror attack that was conducted last night. Details are sketchy at best, with authorities stating only that an individual from New York traveled to Boulder City with the intent to conduct a terrorist attack. At some point last night, the unnamed individual rammed a vehicle into an electrical substation near Boulder City, before taking their own life. Analyst Comment: As of right now, very little information has been made public, and due to the remote nature of the attack site, no civilians witnessed the incident. Authorities have not confirmed which electrical site was targeted, however the Mead Substation is the only facility in the area that matches the loose description provided by police. The suspect has not been identified, and the circumstances of how this event developed have not yet been disclosed, beyond stating that this was a deliberate terror attack. More information is expected this afternoon, as this is a developing situation at the time of this report. California: This morning more details were disclosed regarding a murder that was committed on Monday. Carl Grillmair, a renowned astronomer and researcher at the California Institute of Technology, was found murdered at his home just outside Los Angeles, after being shot in the chest on his front porch on Monday. A few days after the murder, the suspect was identified as Freddy Snyder, who was arrested on Wednesday. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Any time a high-profile murder is committed, a closer look at the case is warranted. Authorities working the case have portrayed this crime as a carjacking-gone-wrong, as the lead suspect has a long history of carjacking. Upon conducting the shooting, the suspect immediately ran to a neighbor's home and attempted to carjack them as well, according to local media reports. However, beyond the rap sheet of the alleged suspect, none of the details as presented make sense simply based on the location of the murder. The victim was a well-known astronomer, and as a result he lived in the middle of nowhere so as to avoid light pollution as much as possible for his home stargazing and research efforts. This residence is so remote that it's exceptionally unlikely that this was a random crime. To get to this residence, the assailant would have had to drive down multiple dead-end roads, in the dark, directly past a wealthy, non-gated country club, to find this house in the middle of the desert. The murder was also reported at just after 6:00am local time, which is an extremely rare time for a carjacking to occur. Whatever happened in this case is unclear, and all theories so far are pure speculation. However, what's clear is that there is more to this case than meets the eye, and considering international tensions becoming palpable, it would be wise to consider the 5th Generation Warfare tactics that are probably being utilized throughout the homeland at the moment, whether it be a mysterious murder, or a random substation being taken offline. All eyes are on the Middle East due to the potential for a hot shooting-war to kick off imminently, but the concerns of a shadow war being waged in the homeland are more of an immediate concern, as the general populace jumps from one distraction to the next. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 19, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DOMESTIC TERROR ATTACKS CONTINUE IN UNITED STATES. IRANIAN DRILLS CONTINUE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. VEHICLE EXPLOSION REPORTED OUTSIDE AMERICAN EMBASSY IN ARMENIA. FLASHBANG DEVICE DEPLOYED AT POLLING PLACE IN NORTH CAROLINA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Armenia: This afternoon an explosion involving a vehicle was reported outside the US Embassy in Yerevan. As of this report, no details have clarified if the explosion was a deliberate VBIED attack, or some other more benign accident, however the investigation is ongoing. Middle East: The military drills in the Strait of Hormuz have continued as before, largely without incident. Several long-range missile launches have been conducted as part of the exercises, and maritime traffic through the Strait has remained fairly steady despite growing concerns among maritime shipping companies. Various European leaders have continued to express increasing urgency that their citizens should leave Iran as soon as possible, as evacuation will not be an option for much longer. Analyst Comment: Concerning the logistics of Americans who may wish to evacuate Iranian territory before things get hot, air travel (if it's even available) is probably the least-safe option at this point. Officially, the US State Department recommends land-border crossings with Armenia and Turkey. The Armenian border crossing in Agarak is still open, and is by far the most reliable means of exiting the country as a visa is not needed for American citizens fleeing Iran. The Turkish border crossings are more numerous, but coordination with the Turkish Embassy is needed to obtain a visa before Americans will be allowed in. Concerning this morning's vehicle explosion in Armenia, it's likely that security measures will be enhanced for a while, so getting out sooner rather than later would be ideal, for anyone still stuck in Iran. -HomeFront- Florida: As nationwide walkout protests involving students continue, children continue to be hit by vehicles as they conduct anti-ICE protests on busy roadways. This morning a student from Palm Beach Lakes Community High School in West Palm Beach was critically injured after stepping into the street during a protest. The condition of the student is not known at this time. Idaho: Early this morning just after midnight, a vehicle ramming attack was reported at a medical facility in Meridian. Local authorities state that one assailant stole an ambulance from the bay at St. Luke's Meridian Medical Center, which he then used to ram into the Portico West administration building on the corner of Eagle and Franklin. After ramming through the plate-glass entryway, the suspect then abandoned the ambulance, and retrieved multiple cans of gasoline that he had cached in the nearby vegetation before the attack. After obtaining the gas cans, the suspect doused the building with the gasoline, but due to the rapid arrival of authorities, egressed from the scene before he was able to ignite the accelerant. The suspect remains at large, and locals are advised to contact authorities with any information that might assist in the investigation. However, no physical description, clothing, or surveillance footage of the suspect has been provided at this time. Analyst Comment: Considering the multiple weapons used during the attack (the gasoline and the vehicle itself) this meets current criteria for being described as a Complex Coordinated Attack (CCA). As such, this incident is being treated as a deliberate terror attack while the investigation is ongoing. North Carolina: Yesterday evening a possible explosive attack was conducted outside a polling place in Moore County. Aberdeen police state that a loud bang was heard yesterday evening outside the Parks and Rec building on Sandhills Blvd. that was serving as an early voting site. Poll workers subsequently investigated the cause of the sound, which resulted in the discovery of a spent flashbang device (though whether or not the device was improvised or commercially produced was not disclosed). Police state that they think someone threw the device at the venue from a moving vehicle passing by on the highway outside the structure. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As most headlines remain focused on the Middle East, terrorism concerns remain paramount here at home. Attacks or incidents involving polling places are always noteworthy due to the political goals that are often the motivation for such activities. However, the North Carolina case is extra noteworthy due to the location of Aberdeen and Southern Pines in general being saturated with important people affiliated with the Special Warfare community. Whether it is mysterious Chechens sneaking through the woods, or electrical substations being shot at in areas that are not easy to find...whenever current events start getting serious around the world, things in Moore County start getting weird. Regarding this case, commercial flashbang devices are not easy to obtain by the average civilian, and they're also not particularly easy to make either. If this had happened anywhere else (and at any other time) most would probably chalk this up to kids playing pranks, but at the present time of palpably-high tensions globally, there's probably more to the case than meets the eye. Similar story in Idaho, where very important context has been left out of much of the reporting surrounding the hospital attack. The exact building that was attacked this morning was rumored to contain workspaces that were leased to ICE. These rumors originated from a WIRED article that was published last week, which identified a list of locations that were being used by Homeland Security, and subsequently, ICE. This report circulated among far-left terror cells in Boise last week, which is very likely why local authorities are tight-lipped regarding the suspect...they don't want to admit that far-left groups are continuing to conduct terrorist attacks at an increasing rate around the United States, without any accountability whatsoever. More specific to this area, Boise PD does not have the resources to combat what has become a very serious domestic terrorism problem in their city over the past few months, and stirring up more activists-turned-terrorists is probably more than they want to handle at the moment. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 17, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN RHODE ISLAND. IRANIAN FORCES CONTINUE NAVAL DRILLS AS AMERICAN FORCES BEGIN MASS MOVEMENT INTO MIDDLE EAST.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Caribbean: American forces continue airstrikes on narco vessels, with three fastboats sunk overnight in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. Two strikes were carried out in the Pacific, and the third in the Caribbean. A total of 11x EKIA were reported as a result of the strikes. Middle East: This morning Iranian forces continued naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. These drills, dubbed the "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz" exercise by the IRGC-N, has involved various show-of-force targeting drills involving various naval platforms. These exercises involved the brief closure of a section of the Strait for a few hours today, as live-fire drills were conducted throughout the day. Europe: This morning, the mass movement of US military aircraft was observed throughout the continent as American forces begin the surge of forces into the Middle East. Overnight, multiple flights of F-16's, F-22's, F-15's and F-35's were all observed maneuvering toward the region, totaling several dozen aircraft. Command and Control aircraft were observed staging as well, alongside several Airborne Early Warning platforms. -HomeFront- Rhode Island: Yesterday afternoon a mass shooting was reported at a skating rink in Pawtucket as one assailant began firing in the stands at a high school hockey game. The shooter has been identified as Robert Dorgan, who was targeting his ex-wife and children during the attack. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with multiple wounded. Analyst Comment: This appears to be a domestic incident, in which a transgender individual murdered his family in the middle of a crowded venue. Based on the shooter's social media pages, this individual was very obviously mentally ill and had made threats openly for some time, including one post which directly threatened violence one day before the shooting. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: So far, the mass mobilization of equipment to CENTCOM looks like the Real McCoy, once again. As of this afternoon, this is the largest migration of military aircraft into CENTCOM in many years, and differs from the last time the US struck Iranian facilities in that fighter aircraft are moving into theater much moreso than the previous one-and-done, single-sortie mission that was Operation MIDNIGHT HAMMER. Of course, moving aircraft is comparatively cheap when it comes to the manipulation that these actions provide, which in this case is very obviously intended to pressure the Iranians into accepting whatever deal is put before them. This afternoon Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departed Geneva, with the past two weeks of talks more or less being a stalemate. As must always be noted, the forces that are being staged right now can always turn around and go home without a shot being fired. However, even taking this into account (and adding in the wider geopolitical context), it's very likely that cratering Iranian facilities is on the menu once more. Probably the best form of warning for the Iranians is the minor detail that the main aircraft carrier in the region (the USS *ABRAHAM LINCOLN*) has not transited the Strait of Hormuz. This foreboding detail is likely due to long-standing doctrine; any serious actions taken in Iran will require more maneuverability (and range) than the Gulf can provide. As a result, a common rule of thumb has been that the United States holding position in the Arabian Sea (without transiting the Strait) is an indicator that the US is serious. If the US just wanted to posture, the Navy would have sailed through the Strait just to flex on the Iranians brown-water navy, and since a CSG has been on station for weeks without doing so, this is something to take note of as the clock ticks down. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 16, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CONCERNS ARE GROWING FOR TWO CAPTURED AMERICAN PILOTS DETAINED IN WEST AFRICA. UNITED STATES SEIZES OIL TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Indian Ocean: Over the weekend the United States seized the M/T *VERONICA III*, one of the tankers which fled Venezuela in the wake of the fall of the Maduro government. The vessel was boarded and seized due to carrying oil in violation of American sanctions. West Africa: Concerns are growing concerning the safety of Two American pilots who were illegally detained by authorities in Guinea almost 6 weeks ago. On December 29th, Brad Schlenker and Fabio Espinal Nunez were piloting a private charter flight when they diverted to Guinea to refuel. They were given permission to land, and upon taxiing to the terminal, were greeted by armed soldiers. Both pilots have been detained since the incident. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As of right now, the issue of the pilots in Guinea is still in the realm of diplomacy, as the families of the captives have been working with the Embassy to secure the pilots' release. Since this line of effort has not yielded any progress, the families have gone to the media with the hope that a media blitz will pressure the White House to speed along their release. All of this can probably be handled with a phone call, but just in case a more active response is called for, an understanding of the terrain might be helpful. So far, many details remain unknown as the initial circumstances of the detention are hard to verify. Flying for a regional charter airline in Africa is one of the most dangerous jobs a pilot can take, simply due to the corruption that is rampant throughout the continent. As such, it was an odd choice to choose to land in this country in particular, which has led many to assess that there is more to the story than meets the eye. The status of the original charter itself is also not known; some reports state that this flight was a ferry flight moving an aircraft that was recently sold (i.e. no passengers on board), whereas other reports state that they were flying a Brazilian family to Dubai. In any case, taking the story at face-value, the pilots diverted to Guinea for fuel and upon landing probably did not have enough cash on hand for the required bribes. Verbal permission to land is not good enough in Africa, and every stage along the way involves greasing palms, which always demand more. In this case, these pilots are currently serving as a bargaining chip, having chosen to land in Guinea at the worst possible time...during a state of military coup. General Mamadi Doumbouya is currently running the country after "winning" the election one day before these pilots landed. Doumbouya was the leader of the 2021 coup that overthrew the previous government, and over the past few years, the beleaguered nation has been host to the standard West African experience of poverty and violence while under military rule. Now that he's made his warlord status official, his government is probably looking to increase his standing. Nothing pads the ego of an African warlord quite like snatching a couple of Americans so as to get the attention of the United States (the mere dialog with the US alone will increase the legitimacy of his government). However, Doumbouya might find that his little stunt gets the wrong kind of attention from the United States if the pilots are not released immediately. Whatever the pilots did (if anything) to get detained is not a good enough excuse to avoid American involvement; the United States has proven over the past year that the US military will bomb a country back to the stone age for nothing more than a Klondike bar, so Doumbouya would be wise to correct this issue immediately. Local media reports (such that they are) indicate that the courts have actually declined to press charges against the pilots as they have done nothing wrong, but the military council running the administration of the country has refused to release them. On the ground, the situation is not great. Schlenker and Nunez have been allowed access to a phone semi-regularly, and have been making contact with family after their detention. State Department officials have also reportedly visited the prisoners in person, confirming that they are still alive. The exact facility that the pilots are being held in is not known, however they have stated that they are located in Conakry, so they are probably being held somewhere inside Conakry Central Prison (also known as Maison Centrale in French), which is the only known detention facility in the area. It is possible the pilots are being held elsewhere, however historically most leaders of African nations tend to keep a close eye on their political prisoners, and Guinea's history is no different, with the main prison being located a short distance from the Presidential Residences. This is important as if this is where the pilots are being held, they probably will not survive much longer. This facility is nestled in the heart of heavily urbanized terrain at the southwestern end of the peninsula which contains Guinea's capital city of Conakry. As far as prisons go, this facility is a standard example of the typical African prison, and conditions inside the compound are horrific at best and non-survivable at worst due to extremely harsh living conditions brought on by overcrowding, as well as the brutality of the guards who frequently torture prisoners. The terrain surrounding the compound is dense urban city, with little open ground. The target compound itself is encircled by slums to the North and East, and protected by a mud-brick wall approximately 8 feet tall, and 1-2 feet thick. Inside the perimeter sits a scattered array of one-story buildings, most of which are of cinderblock construction. Otherwise, defenses throughout the peninsula are sparse, with most weapons systems being centered around the standard Technical with a mounted crew-served weapon. It is likely that no MANPADs or other more sophisticated air defenses are located in the area. Most military forces are scattered sporadically, with the main bulk of somewhat-organized forces being concentrated at the Airport 7 miles to the northeast. All in all, if Doumbouya wants to take his chances, he's certainly welcome to do so, however it would be wise for him to seek a diplomatic solution immediately. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/ElqCCjeKxow