Grace_Too

Gap to Gap When trend lines get broken, they often get revisited — not always on the same timeframe. The 12h trend line on my chart since October 28th was tested last week, almost five months later. You can't see that until you look at the lowest time frames. Here it's the 15m chart. I found how to identify these trends during the 2020 bull run. That bull move stayed above a 2d trend throughout. Every prior bear market had a weekly downtrend line established by this point — this one doesn't. That's worth noting. If we overcome the 2d it'll be because we've built the market structure to support it. That's where this bear market gets repaired — between the gaps. A daily close below the D/CL at 63,500 tells me the base has failed. This bear market is not dead. But the resiliency off the base is a good start

I coudn't imagine being afraid of a win win scenario, but there it is. Must be a cheeky Melanial

This doesn't look like a liquidity grab to me, this looks bullish. The purple down trend was part of the trend channel I was observing that I thought we'd be stuck in. and we're currently out, we could revisit, but this is constructive price action on the 8hr. I'm seeing a case that we could end the week above 70.3k That would be step 1 in market repair. Everyone is noticing the pattern that i spoke about for over a month before anyone saw how obvious it was. Go back and look. Well I'm telling you now, that maybe it was a crowded trade. I'm seeing the market build a cause, very early stages.

It might be difficult to see I appologize if you're 1 of the 0 people following my charts. In 2022 we were nowhere near the price trend (for me that is the time based portion of a correction). Today we are at that trend, right now, we've rejected it once already and now we're challenging it again. I've removed a lot from my chart so you can see the candle and the terminal points of the trend line projection. We're already trading above both of the 4hr down trends I had in purple, one I erased 2 weeks ago because it was no longer relevant to us

I'm not 100% sure the same pattern is playing out anymore. But I've been consistent in my analysis. For me to change my mind about the trend I need to see change in market structure. For me that is a few steps. 1. I need to see a close above the green weekly close low horizontal W/CL. 2. I want to see another candle open and close above the same horizontal. I took my short position off on Wednesday because the time factor in my trade wasn't playing out. In 2022 their was a liquidity grab in the beginning of the week before it dumped. We could be doing a liquidity grab right now, I don't know. But if the CME closes above this level, most weekends, most of the time price action does nothing. But we have some bullish patterns that could take us higher today that I'm noticing. It's not impossible that the "Bottom is in crowd" is correct. I'm starting to see the beginning of a repair, there's a lot of work to do on the weekly first

A bit of a surprise to me, I was expecting a 12hr trend to be set from the failure of the bull trap, but it was set at the bear trap that initiated this current pump. It's bisecting the 4hr trends. It will be interesting to see how price interacts with this trend in the future. I've been extending all of my long term trends out to 30k. All trends must start from candle opens, then I throw them as far into the future as possible and lock them in

Right now my target is the quarter pivot high. There's a lot of resistance above, and we don't have any bullish market structure. If you've been patient and not shorting breakouts like most of your friends then you're seeing opportunity. First level I'm looking at is 73.5k, my second point of interest is 78.3K

The trap is being set! Watch your favourite influencers tell you how bullish Bitcoin is... we're going to retake the highs! I'm going to keep an eye on Cheds, I let him know that the best market analysis is right here on NOSTR. I'm fading as we speak I have the orders set at 73444. What invalidates my thesis. The week must both open and close a candle above 70132K the Weekly close low. That to me would be a sign to watch for the market starting to repair structure

A more zoomed in look. Short term trends can get noisy. Currently above a 1hr up trend, as more time passes we inch closer to major down trends. If Price stays at this level it will meet the 4hr down trend in purple on Friday the 13th. Price would have to rally 14% to with the Weekly low close from here.

Not a lot to say, Throw over seems to still be in play, I think it's a stinky fish for all the bulls out there. Sure this time could be different, but so far it's been the same ole cycle. In 2022 once price broke from the range it took 170 days to find a bottom and just over 300 days before price recovered from the lows. Being a bear is easy right now, but they're on the right side of the trend. I hope you're still accumulating your fiat, bear hunting season is around the corner. Their turn is coming soon, and we're gonna kill'em

lol I’m bearish… but maybe not bearish enough? Maybe I’m being too bullish on bull traps 🤷‍♂️ We’re under the cover of a downtrend until I chart otherwise. Cheerio!

Zoomed out this looks a lot like a 5 wave structure. We would be in wave 4 right now and 1 to 1 extension of wave 1 fits wave 3 perfectly. If wave 5 matches that energy, the target is the red S/R around 48.6K. Should all of this play out so easily. I'll be looking for accumulation patterns with Wyckoff techniques, verified by market structure. - If this all plays like 2022 it would just blow my mind. Lets see if the MVRV crosses its 6.89 accumulation zone. The MVRV accumulation floor is 1.89

Last weekend I was early to the throw over, we had the ghey one, but that turned into a more fun bear trap. I don't have a crystal ball, but I have a feeling that the bears are going to get liquidated before they're proven right. The 4h down trend in purple crosses the quarterly pivot high level Monday March 2. Do we spend the weekend trapping bulls thinking that the Jane St witch is dead. I laid out this range from the second it was set. I think we're getting close to the terminal point and finish the denial phase of this bear market. It would amaze me if this is 3 weeks just like it was in 2022. Q.P.H is just 8% above, so not a big stretch to cover.

Was that it? that was the bull trap over the weekend? I can't be sure. I was thinking it would have grabbed liquidity above the range highs on a few daily candles, but nothing has to do what you think it will. I'm not sure what's going on with Iran, the Olympics are done, and the State of the Union address is tomorrow. Mexico was lit up by the cartels yesterday, and Bitcoin isn't an uncertainty trade yet. The weekly RSI is just points away from all time ever lows (that I think we're going to break). The suck is starting either today, or within 14 days from now (unless we really did just have the gayest bull trap of all time). I asked my wife is she wanted to sell everything yesterday before this recent dump... I think she saw through my question for what it actually was - a divorce test, and she answered no. We'll be buying cheap cheap sats soon I think. I'm starting to wonder if praying for 30K is a bit too greedy.. I dunno We'll find out soon enough

Everyone who's says things are too bearish... welcome to the denial phase. There is just too much bullshit in all systems. I think we'll know a lot more about capitulation by May/June/July.... My call is that you're about to get bull trapped in the next 2 weeks

If the top of the range remains 70K then I think we have until March 9 or so before we take our next leg down. But I think we can go a little bit higher than that first. If we complete this 'W' pattern, I think a possible target could be around 76K. There's a lot of resistance at 73k. That would take us to the 4h down trend in purple. Which ever day we touch that trend will be a sell the news day. For me a bottom on this market we'll have an MVRV-z score of 2.6 That's when you hate your UTXOs. Do you think Bitcoin will have a hard fork? I wonder how professional money managers think about that. Uncertainty or opportunity

I think I'll side step whatever and play again another time. Just fun money every once in a while, I'm 100% not a trader lol

There was some tweet I saw yesterday from someone far more sophisticated than I am about the Monday dump, but what about the Thursday lows and Friday pumps? So last night I put a small bet on to make the weekend interesting and maybe take Mrs Too out for dinner on Sunday if I win. I certainly don't think we've put a bottom in while we're still inside this 4hr down trend channel. Be ware of bulls, especially late bulls telling you the bottom is in at 73k (if price gets there I'd be a fader). People are starting to talk about the range I forecasted almost two weeks ago, so I don't think it will last much longer

Don’t read Nik’s copium, but do read his book Layered Money Prices will trend until the coin is dead, and only then will it rise again - MVRV Z’ed score 4

No fluff analysis is a tougher sell than max bull or bear. We’re still the same range as last week, burden of proof is on the bulls. This is re-distribution until proven otherwise. Weekly closes over 70k daily closes over 79k promotes bullish structure. I’m a buyer when the MVRV Z score reaches 4, currently it’s >13