Nobody is going to join the US in the strait of hormuz, everyone said no and for good reason. It’s a total un-winnable death trap. The war not going well and not as planned is an enormous understatement. Here’s what I think will happen next.
The president has asked allies for help and they said no. I think he will use this as the exit. If they aren’t willing to “do the work, we aren’t risking more American lives”.
I think this will be the end of US bases in the middle east and Iran has already required it to open up the strait.
Like I said the other day, I think this is the end of the petrodollar and American hegemony. The global order will not be held together by the US military, the US dollar, and the current US ideology we force on other countries. We are going to move into a multipolar world that is more fragmented. This is kind of the end of “the global village”.
The strait not being open doesn’t just just impact oil prices, more importantly it disrupts fertilizer from making it to farmers in time for spring crops. The consequences are mounting by the day.
Also, I genuinely believe all this was inevitably going to happen at some point in the next 10-20 years, the events and choices of the past few weeks just sped them up.