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Derek Ross7d ago
Love to see the texts 😂
💬 10 replies

Replies (10)

Derek Ross7d ago
i told him no one knows shit about fuck, but some people that think they know shit about fuck think we'll chop sideways from 60-70K plus or minus a few grand for the next 9 months plus or minus a few months. tldr; just buy now.
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Cykros7d ago
They'll be even more pissed of if that MVRV Z-score does what it always has before the end of a bear market in the past. If we head up from here it'll be the first time it didn't first drop below 0...
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Derek Ross7d ago
when you say MVRV, to me that looks like MIRV and reminds me of the MIRV bomb in the old DOS game Scorched Earth. i don't know what MVRV Z-score means :)
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Erin7d ago
I got one of those today too 😂
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Derek Ross7d ago
we're winning!
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Cykros7d ago
It sounds more complicated than it is. Basically, MVRV is the ratio of Market value to Realized value. Realized value being the sum of the price when each Bitcoin was moved last, and market value being the full market cap of outstanding Bitcoin. The mean of this ratio is about 1.6, just historically speaking. Adding a Z-score into it just looks at where we are in terms of standard deviations from this mean. A Z-score of 1 means we are 1 standard deviation away from this mean, while 0 indicates that we are at that mean presently. And negative Z-scores of course mean we're below the mean. It's the yellow line on this graph: https://charts.bitbo.io/mvrv-z-score/
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Cykros7d ago
Both @eab0e756…7ab91f4f and James Check bring it up pretty frequently, and if you think about what it's showing fundamentally, it follows that the way crowds behave work as they do. Selling pressure begets selling pressure, to a point, as most people aren't interested in selling at a loss, but may well decide to take profits (to "buy back cheaper" later). The fuel behind that typically runs out as we get below that 0 mark, as most any sale becomes necessarily at a loss, and most of us in the space, even the degenerate traders, know that over time bitcoin goes up. So the selling pressure lets up, a bottom forms, and a new bull market can emerge. We're not there yet. We don't NEED to get there -- but we always have, and if I were a betting man, I'd say that this time probably isn't different.
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Cykros7d ago
TL;DR 58k gang lives.
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Derek Ross7d ago
Thanks for the explanations. I also hope we get to see the 58k gang again.
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Cykros6d ago
Sure thing, just standing on Lyn and Checkmatey's shoulders. And yea, they deserve an encore. I briefly was imagining that the institutions were toying with 58kgang on the day it dropped to 59 before jumping back up. Guess I still can't rule it out...
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