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Cykros7d ago
It sounds more complicated than it is. Basically, MVRV is the ratio of Market value to Realized value. Realized value being the sum of the price when each Bitcoin was moved last, and market value being the full market cap of outstanding Bitcoin. The mean of this ratio is about 1.6, just historically speaking. Adding a Z-score into it just looks at where we are in terms of standard deviations from this mean. A Z-score of 1 means we are 1 standard deviation away from this mean, while 0 indicates that we are at that mean presently. And negative Z-scores of course mean we're below the mean. It's the yellow line on this graph: https://charts.bitbo.io/mvrv-z-score/
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Cykros7d ago
Both @eab0e756…7ab91f4f and James Check bring it up pretty frequently, and if you think about what it's showing fundamentally, it follows that the way crowds behave work as they do. Selling pressure begets selling pressure, to a point, as most people aren't interested in selling at a loss, but may well decide to take profits (to "buy back cheaper" later). The fuel behind that typically runs out as we get below that 0 mark, as most any sale becomes necessarily at a loss, and most of us in the space, even the degenerate traders, know that over time bitcoin goes up. So the selling pressure lets up, a bottom forms, and a new bull market can emerge. We're not there yet. We don't NEED to get there -- but we always have, and if I were a betting man, I'd say that this time probably isn't different.
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