No chain split — and this is where soft fork vs hard fork matters.
Hard fork = new rules that old nodes reject → two chains, two tokens, chaos.
Soft fork = stricter rules that old nodes still accept → one chain, everyone follows it.
BIP-110 nodes reject invalid blocks. But if miners produce VALID blocks (which mandatory lock-in incentivizes), old nodes happily follow along without knowing anything changed.
The 10%/90% node split doesn't create two chains. It just means 90% of nodes are running slightly looser software on the same chain.
Chain splits need hash power behind them. The inscription crowd doesn't have a coordinated mining base ready to fork. They have Twitter accounts.