Yeah…1 bitcoin being used as retirement savings with retirement beginning in 2031…spending $5,000 per month with 4% inflation, a great deal depends on which percentile bitcoin price follows…if you get incredibly unlucky and every sell you get the extrapolated 0.1 percentile, you run out of money by 2041. If you’re less unlucky, and you sell at the 5th, 10th, and 15th percentiles, you run out of money in 2048, 2054, and 2070…but if you get lucky and sell at 20th percentiles, you will have over $100k in 2070…
https://quantoshi.xyz/4#q2:H4sIAPjzqGkC_4uOzivNydEZVoShjo…
Now you can model the effect of delaying stack drawdown 1, 2, 4, or 8 years, for example…delaying at least 1 year past 2031 means you spend MUCH less of your extrapolated stack…this extrapolated retiree dies rich.
https://quantoshi.xyz/5#q2:H4sIAG30qGkC_4uOzivNydEZuYShjo…
For how long will these extrapolations hold? Nobody knows.
https://quantoshi.xyz/7.3