It's fixed.
It was fun trying to remodel this in a spreadsheet to get a better understanding of this.
There are a few thoughts I had about it, these are not criticisms on the whole thing, just some nuances that I thought were worth thinking about for anyone using this strategy.
1. When you are in a position where you need to pay down the loan, you could choose to instead take less from your monthly draw. It turns out that it has no net benefit and kind of complicates the situation even though taking out more debt feels like worsening the situation. -- you could save money if you were planning to pay down the debt, but that isn't this strategy.
2. The projections work on paper, but you really have to make your plan and stick to it. The plan assumes a CAGR and that the value of Bitcoin is linear/smooth. Obviously that is not true, so the worst thing you can do is get excited when the market exceeds your expectations and over compensate.
3. At the same time, when the market crashes, you are going to feel shitty. It can leave you at an LTV of over 15%, maybe 40-50% for long periods of time. You can overcompensate if you want, but the strategy here doesn't take paying down your loan due to price fluctuations into consideration (not sure in practice whether it helps or just makes you stack less... I guess it's down to risk tolerance, but overcompensating means stacking less during price drops).
4. Managing debt is scary as fuck. It's like juggling chainsaws. It isn't for everyone.
5. Use a CAGR that you think is sustainable for at least 7 years, 10 years is better. Otherwise you will overshoot and may feel stress at times because of it.
6. You are compounding debt. You pay interest on your borrowed amount once and then again each year you don't pay it off while taking on more debt and paying interest on that too. The formulas do include this, but you should know what you're doing.
7. Liquidity is not unlimited. At least I don't think so. If you end up with too much debt, you may be left in a position where you cannot move it to a different provider and if you cannot renew due to some event with the current provider, then you lose some of your stack which is maybe 15%, or maybe more depending on what the market looks like. I would never assume that when you are being forced out, that the market is in your favour.
8. All the bitcoin you stack as part of this strategy is considered part of your available collateral. If you don't do that, the math don't work out as well.
9. There is a pivotal point (assuming CAGR is stable) at which point the amount needed as collateral starts going down instead of up. I really couldn't figure out how to speed that up, other than "have more income".
10. Having more bitcoin doesn't get you past that pivot point, it just delays the time before you need to start repaying the loan for some time until you get to the pivot moment.
11. That pivot moment is gonna be about 7 - 10 years for most people probably.
12. This really does feel like what Michael Saylor is probably doing. Invest first and raise capital after. It does feel like magic. Use magic at your own risk, it is probably not going to work exactly as you think.
I look at this and on one hand I think that this is magic and that it's a secret that only the finance gurus knew about, but at the same time, it is scary as fuck.
Most people don't do this, probably because they don't know about the strategy, but also because to land on it, you have to have experience taking on risk. A lot of Bitcoiners are self proclaimed risk avoiders, and this will feel uncomfortable to embark on.
If you are entrepreneural, this will feel natural.
Here is the point. You are making a few bets. You are betting that Bitcoin continues to go up, you are betting that you can stay disciplined and not see rockets during bulls and alerts during bears. You are betting that you continue to earn more than you spend, and you are betting over a 10 year horizon. A lot can happen in 10 years, a lot good, but if you rely on good, expect bad to happen. That's sods law.
Financial planning says this is dangerous. You should have 6 months of savings to ensure that you can survive situations like job loss. With this strategy, you may need more. If you keep your reserves in bitcoin you definitely need more.
The huge benefit is that you stack more bitcoin than you thought you could, and eventually you see the amount of Bitcoin you would lose by closing the line of credit go down and that is gonna feel sweet.
But it is also going to be stressful for people who aren't used to managing risk everyday.