The methodology is straightforward. BLS surveys rental agreements every six months and applies a rolling 12-month lag to smooth volatility. Shelter inflation doesn't reflect what renters are paying today. It reflects what they committed to paying more than a year ago. Real-time rental data tells a different story. Zillow, Apartment List, and private market trackers showed rental price growth peaking in mid-2022, then decelerating sharply through 2023 and into 2024. By late 2024, year-over-year rent growth had cooled to the low single digits in many metro markets. CPI shelter kept showing elevated inflation well into 2025.