Again, private credit is cracking.
Morgan Stanley put out an 8% default rate projection for direct lending. AI is repricing the software sector, and software companies make up 25-35% of many private credit portfolios. These are companies that borrowed at peak valuations when rates were low, and now their competitive moats are eroding faster than anyone modeled.
Blackstone had $3.8B in withdrawal requests on BCRED. Cliffwater capped redemptions at 14%. Blue Owl stopped them entirely.
The capital leaving private credit needs a destination. It needs yield, liquidity, and something resembling honest pricing. I think digital credit built on Bitcoin is that destination, and the reallocation hasn’t even started yet.