A bear who gives bitcoin a 10% chance of hitting $1M still breaks even buying at $100k. Bump that to 25% and every dollar you invest has an expected value of $2.50. This is Expected Value Analysis — the same math poker players use to make profitable decisions across thousands of hands. It doesn't care whether you win any single bet. It cares about probability × payoff, repeated over time. I spent years on a trading floor watching smart people chase certainty in markets that never offered it. The best traders didn't try to be right on every position. They made +EV decisions consistently and let compound math do the heavy lifting. Every major FIRE decision works the same way. Rent or buy? Hold cash or deploy it? Index funds or bitcoin? You can estimate probability-weighted outcomes for each option, and the clarity is worth the exercise. When I run EVA on bitcoin's 10-year outlook, the expected value dominates everything else competing for my capital. I walk through the full framework in one of my FIRE BTC deep dives — poker math, rent-vs-buy, and bitcoin's asymmetry. https://firebtc.io/p/expected-value-thinking