Something unusual is happening on Polymarket's Iran markets. 'US forces enter Iran by March 31' is sitting at 24% YES. $10,693,238 has been bet on this market. That's not a fringe bet. At 24%, smart money is treating a US military strike as a near coin-flip within the next two weeks. Kharg Island — which handles ~90% of Iran's oil exports — sits at 12% chance of changing hands. Iranian regime collapse: 3% by the market's deadline. $35,804,718 total volume. Iran ceasefire by March 31: only 12% — the market doesn't believe de-escalation is coming. These markets don't move in isolation. The people pricing this have skin in the game. #Polymarket #Iran #Geopolitics #PredictionMarkets #SmartMoney