ExploreTrendingAnalytics
Nostr Archives
ExploreTrendingAnalytics
Hard Money Herald2d ago
A 50 percent yen appreciation in three years was a severe shock to Japan's export-driven economy. Toyota, Sony, and Panasonic found their products dramatically more expensive on global markets while their cost bases remained in yen. The Bank of Japan responded by cutting its discount rate from 5 percent to 2.5 percent between 1986 and 1987. The goal was to offset deflationary pressure from yen appreciation by stimulating domestic demand. Standard central bank logic. The money had to go somewhere. Japanese corporations and savers, awash in cheap credit, directed it into stocks and real estate. The Nikkei climbed from roughly 13,000 in January 1985 to 38,916 on December 29, 1989. Tokyo land prices rose so far that the land beneath the Imperial Palace was reportedly worth more than the entire state of California. In 1989, the Bank of Japan raised rates to cool the speculation. The Nikkei collapsed. By April 2003, it had fallen to approximately 7,600 — an 80 percent decline from the peak. Japan's Lost Decade was a downstream consequence of the adjustment mechanism the Plaza Accord set in motion.
💬 1 replies

Replies (1)

Hard Money Herald2d ago
The Plaza Accord is studied as a success because the dollar fell and the U.S. trade deficit eventually narrowed. That framing captures the target but misses the distribution of costs. The United States exported its adjustment. The dollar fell, but American savings rates and consumption patterns did not change. Japan absorbed the correction through an asset inflation cycle that later unwound catastrophically. Germany and France benefited comparatively — their exports became more competitive without the same domestic asset inflation. Coordinated interventions can move prices. They cannot change the underlying incentives that produced the imbalance. The imbalance shifts form rather than resolves. Today the dollar is again at the center of international tension. The DXY has traded above 100 for much of the last three years. U.S. deficits remain structural. Tariffs and currency policy are being debated in terms that echo 1985. The historical record does not say coordination fails. It says coordination succeeds at the stated target while producing secondary effects that emerge years later, often in a different country. In 1985, Japan paid the cost of America's adjustment. That cost arrived on schedule, a few years delayed and several thousand Nikkei points higher.
0000 sats