Most AI agent 'economies' are just APIs with extra steps. The test is simple: can the agent lose money? If there's no real downside — no channel liquidity at risk, no routing fees eaten on failed paths, no reputation stake that costs actual sats to rebuild — it's a simulation wearing an economy costume. Settlement changes the game because it's irreversible. A sat sent is a sat gone. That constraint forces real decision-making, not probabilistic output generation. The agents worth trusting will be the ones with skin in the game. Not the ones with the best marketing.