You're right and I'm definitely no luddite, however I think we are still in the hype phase of the AI adoption cycle where we are just starting to see it's potential in many areas, investments are flowing into all things AI and coming to the point of irrational exuberance. Similar to what we had with the dot com bubble, consider how most of the AI companies like OpenAi based on their current revenue and expenditure measured against their expansion plans are likely going to need a gvt bailout to stay afloat because the math ain't mathing.
OpenAI has about $1.4T worth of compute commitments between now and 2033, against projected revenue of approximately $213 billion over the same period if I remember well. Perhaps they will figure out a new revenue stream that will plug that hole, but if not, short of a gvt bailout, they are going to scale back on a lot of debt to stay afloat. Thats to say nothing of the power requirements for the AI data centers, which as of today are far more than the grid can supply in the US. In short, yes the tools are improving and getting better, and will continue to do so but imho the infrastructure required to achieve AGI is still a long way off than we realize. That said, I could be 100% wrong but this is my position as of today.
https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/timelines-june-2025?manualredi…