Most CPI analysis anchors on the headline number. But the component the Fed actually uses to determine whether underlying demand pressure has broken is services ex-shelter — supercore. It strips out goods deflation, energy volatility, and lagged shelter surveys to isolate what wage-driven service inflation is doing in real time. February's reading: 4.0% year over year. Supercore is sticky because it reflects domestic wages and spending rather than global supply chains or rental contract cycles. Services — healthcare, restaurants, insurance, personal care — move with employment conditions. A 4% reading suggests those conditions haven't shifted in any meaningful way, even as goods and energy have moderated. The market repriced June cut odds down to 60% after this morning's print. That's a reasonable short-run adjustment. But the more important question is whether 4% supercore is a temporary stall in a longer disinflationary trend — or something closer to the structural floor of where this economy runs given current labor conditions. If it's the latter, the Fed's optionality for the rest of 2026 is narrower than current pricing implies. What would it take — which reading, over how many months — for you to conclude the structure itself has changed?